Post by Nadica (She/Her) on Nov 30, 2024 6:17:08 GMT
Seasonal variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the Netherlands, 2020-2022: statistical evidence for a negative association with temperature - Preprint posted Nov 29, 2024
Abstract
In temperate regions, respiratory viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 are better transmitted in Winter than in Summer. Understanding how temperature and humidity affect SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility can enhance projections of COVID-19 incidence and improve estimation of the effectiveness of control measures. During the pandemic, transmissibility was tracked by the reproduction number Rt. This study aims to determine whether information about the daily temperature and absolute humidity improves predictions of Rt in the Netherlands from 2020 to 2022, and to quantify the relationship between Rt, daily temperature and absolute humidity. We conducted a regression analysis, accounting for immunity from vaccination and previous infection, higher transmissibility of new variants, and changes in contact behaviour due to control measures. Results show a linear association between logRt and daily temperature, indicating a ratio of Rt in Winter versus Summer of 1.5 (95% CI, 1.2-1.8). Including absolute humidity in the model did not improve predictions. The possibility that this association arises from unrelated seasonal patterns was dismissed, as weather data from earlier years provided poorer fits, and incorporating mobility data did not affect results. This suggests a causal relationship between temperature and SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility, enhancing confidence in using this relationship for short-term predictions and other epidemiological analyses.
Abstract
In temperate regions, respiratory viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 are better transmitted in Winter than in Summer. Understanding how temperature and humidity affect SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility can enhance projections of COVID-19 incidence and improve estimation of the effectiveness of control measures. During the pandemic, transmissibility was tracked by the reproduction number Rt. This study aims to determine whether information about the daily temperature and absolute humidity improves predictions of Rt in the Netherlands from 2020 to 2022, and to quantify the relationship between Rt, daily temperature and absolute humidity. We conducted a regression analysis, accounting for immunity from vaccination and previous infection, higher transmissibility of new variants, and changes in contact behaviour due to control measures. Results show a linear association between logRt and daily temperature, indicating a ratio of Rt in Winter versus Summer of 1.5 (95% CI, 1.2-1.8). Including absolute humidity in the model did not improve predictions. The possibility that this association arises from unrelated seasonal patterns was dismissed, as weather data from earlier years provided poorer fits, and incorporating mobility data did not affect results. This suggests a causal relationship between temperature and SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility, enhancing confidence in using this relationship for short-term predictions and other epidemiological analyses.