Post by Nadica (She/Her) on Nov 25, 2024 3:57:31 GMT
The impact of human behavioral adaptation stratified by immune status on COVID-19 spread with application to South Korea - Published Nov 20, 2024
Abstract
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues with ongoing variant waves and vaccination efforts, population-level immunity and public risk perceptions have shifted. This study presents a behavioral transmission model to assess how virus spread and care-seeking behavior differ based on individuals’ immunity status. We categorized the population into two groups: “partially immune” and “susceptible,” which influenced their response to vaccination and testing, as well as their prioritization of information related to disease prevalence and severity. Using COVID-19 data from South Korea (February 1, 2022 - May 31, 2022), we calibrated our model to explore these dynamics. Simulation results suggest that increasing reactivity to information among partially immune individuals to the same level as susceptible individuals could reduce peak active cases by 16%. Conversely, if partially immune individuals shift their risk perception focus from prevalence (90% prevalence vs. 10% severity) to severity (90% severity vs. 10% prevalence), the peak in active cases could increase by 50%. These findings highlight the need for adaptive vaccination and testing strategies as public risk perceptions evolve due to prior exposures and vaccinations. As new variant waves emerge in the post-pandemic endemic era, our study offers insights into how immunity-based behavioral differences can shape future infection peaks.
Abstract
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues with ongoing variant waves and vaccination efforts, population-level immunity and public risk perceptions have shifted. This study presents a behavioral transmission model to assess how virus spread and care-seeking behavior differ based on individuals’ immunity status. We categorized the population into two groups: “partially immune” and “susceptible,” which influenced their response to vaccination and testing, as well as their prioritization of information related to disease prevalence and severity. Using COVID-19 data from South Korea (February 1, 2022 - May 31, 2022), we calibrated our model to explore these dynamics. Simulation results suggest that increasing reactivity to information among partially immune individuals to the same level as susceptible individuals could reduce peak active cases by 16%. Conversely, if partially immune individuals shift their risk perception focus from prevalence (90% prevalence vs. 10% severity) to severity (90% severity vs. 10% prevalence), the peak in active cases could increase by 50%. These findings highlight the need for adaptive vaccination and testing strategies as public risk perceptions evolve due to prior exposures and vaccinations. As new variant waves emerge in the post-pandemic endemic era, our study offers insights into how immunity-based behavioral differences can shape future infection peaks.