Post by Nadica (She/Her) on Nov 22, 2024 3:15:47 GMT
Egg prices nearly double in CA as bird flu spreads - Published Nov 21, 2024
By John Lindt
KERN COUNTY – The price of eggs is often used as a barometer for the economy, but this fall’s high prices are not the work of market factors, but rather migratory flights.
Avian flu is spreading along the path of birds’ southern migration for winter across California. As of Nov. 12, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that a large egg ranch in Kern County has been impacted by bird flu resulting in the destruction of 2.15 million egg layers. This is the first case of HPAI in Kern County during the 2022-24 bird flu outbreak as it spread south heading into winter. Kern County is home to some of the state’s largest egg ranch operations.
The same day USDA also announced that avian flu hit two Fresno County poultry ranches, one a broiler ranch resulting in the killing of 237,700 chickens being prepped for meat and a turkey ranch requiring the destruction of 34,800 toms, or male turkeys. The news follows recent reports about avian flu spreading to Kings County poultry ranches resulting in the loss of over half a million birds and at another Fresno ranch. On Nov. 14, USDA added three more poultry ranches to the list of affected including one in Merced County, a turkey ranch with the loss of 53,200 birds and another one in Fresno County.
The locations of the poultry ranches are not far from the Pacific flyway, a major migratory route in the Western United States. In the case of Kern County, the egg ranch was close to the Kern Wildlife Refuge as well as nearby dairies. This is worrying observers that there appears to be a connection between all three vectors for the rapidly mutating virus.
Northern California poultry operations have been hard hit as well. Nationwide, outbreaks have claimed more than 21 million hens, so far in 2024.
Egg Prices
In California the impact on egg prices has been significant.
On Nov. 13, the USDA reported that a dozen large, white cage-free eggs cost about $5.26 per dozen in California. This is according to USDA market data for the week of Nov. 8. USDA says this is a “benchmark” price. The price is up from $2.81 a month earlier. That is almost double the benchmark, but may not reflect retail.
The last time California eggs were this high was in February when California egg prices – cage-free egg prices – peaked at $5.59 per dozen.
The cases of infected birds correspond with fall bird migrations that are spreading the virus throughout the state. Detections are higher in fall and spring as wild birds spread the virus when they migrate. This year the bird flu has taken its toll with the outbreak of H5N1, a highly transmissible and fatal strain of avian influenza, or bird flu. The outbreak started in early 2022 and rapidly grew into the largest bird flu outbreak in U.S. history.
Most recently, outbreaks affecting more than 2.84 million egg layers were reported in October at commercial facilities in Oregon, Washington and Utah, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
As of Nov. 8, the virus has affected over 105.2 million birds in the U.S. since January 2022, according to the CDC. The California egg shortage will likely have a pocketbook impact on holiday baking activity as the nation prepares for Thanksgiving; however, a recent USDA analysis suggests consumers may not see a huge jump.
“Large volume grocery retailers across the nation have launched their shell egg feature campaigns targeting holiday demand at relatively attractive price levels. Much of this is attributable to changes in the way shell eggs are being marketed with an increasing share (estimated at over half of all shell egg volume sold at retail) tied to production cost agreements not prone to fluctuation common in formula trading.”
There are about 378.5 million egg-laying chickens in the US. As of last year, there were 9.4 billion broiler chickens and 218 million turkeys processed, according to the USDA. Advocates note the high cost of the influenza just in the egg market. “With domestic sales of shell eggs and products amounting to seven billion dozen, consumers paid an incremental $15 billion as a result of the prolonged and uncontrolled infection.”
While bird flu is impacting poultry farms, another strain of the virus has impacted Central Valley dairies as well, spreading quickly since September to 291 dairy farms as of press time. Unlike poultry, dairy cows typically survive the virus, although milk production is expected to be impacted.
Avian flu is a worldwide phenomenon. In the past two weeks, the first cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) of the fall season have been reported in Albania, Great Britain, Romania, and now regions of Germany and Ukraine.
Despite the increase in US egg prices this holiday season, turkey prices are down from last year when supply was also affected by bird flu. Across the country, a 15-pound turkey costs an average of $31.16 ($2.08 per pound) in 2024, compared with $35.40 ($2.36 per pound) in 2023. That price reduction represents a price decrease of 12% from last year to now,” a report said. The lower price comes even as a U.S. Department of Agriculture report showed turkey production dipped more than 6% compared to this time last year.
Hen and Hoof
The spread of this strain of the virus appears to be affecting both the Central Valley poultry and dairy industries at the same time.
Just before Sept. 1 there were no reports of the virus in the Valley’s dairy industry. But as of Nov. 15, there are almost 300 diaries, mostly in Tulare and Kings Counties, impacted with new ones being added every day.
The Valley poultry industry has been on a similar viral timeline which coincides with the annual bird migration along the Pacific flyway that happens each fall. H5N1 largely infects wild birds, with waterfowl such as ducks and geese being the natural reservoirs for H5N1 viruses. Most H5N1 viruses are highly pathogenic avian influenza, meaning spillovers into other bird populations can lead to high mortality rates, including domesticated poultry.
A compounding factor for the spread of the virus is that both livestock are often on land located right next door or just down the road. The Central Valley is home for both industries with animals, transported in and out, and service vehicles going in and out of these large facilities every day.
The industry website Egg-News this week pointed out that research shows that the infections can be transmitted over a distance of up to a mile while attached to dust particles. Fall is harvest for a number of crops, including the nut industry, sending up plumes of dust in the Valley sky, at times associated with winds.
Egg-News points out that dairy cow-associated H5N1 viruses have jumped back into wild birds, and recent outbreaks in domestic poultry resembled H5N1 in dairy cows.
In an editorial Egg-News said “APHIS Needs a New Approach to Control HPAIr.” They recommend that USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) adopt vaccination as a disease control strategy for bird flu, with promising results from clinical trials. In May 2023, the U.S. authorized the vaccination of California condors against a type of avian flu.
Also, the USDA has approved field trials to test vaccines that could prevent dairy cows from getting the H5N1 strain of bird flu. The USDA approved the first field trials for the vaccine in September 2024. The USDA’s Center of Veterinary Biologics (CVB) is overseeing the trials. At least 24 companies are working on the vaccine, including Zoetis and Merck Animal Health.
If vaccines can save the U.S. poultry and dairy industry over the next year, the industry may have to worry about who heads up the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the agency which authorizes vaccines for animals and humans. Nominee Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has made it clear he is anti-vaccine but has yet to comment on the use of vaccines in agriculture if he is confirmed for the role.
By John Lindt
KERN COUNTY – The price of eggs is often used as a barometer for the economy, but this fall’s high prices are not the work of market factors, but rather migratory flights.
Avian flu is spreading along the path of birds’ southern migration for winter across California. As of Nov. 12, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that a large egg ranch in Kern County has been impacted by bird flu resulting in the destruction of 2.15 million egg layers. This is the first case of HPAI in Kern County during the 2022-24 bird flu outbreak as it spread south heading into winter. Kern County is home to some of the state’s largest egg ranch operations.
The same day USDA also announced that avian flu hit two Fresno County poultry ranches, one a broiler ranch resulting in the killing of 237,700 chickens being prepped for meat and a turkey ranch requiring the destruction of 34,800 toms, or male turkeys. The news follows recent reports about avian flu spreading to Kings County poultry ranches resulting in the loss of over half a million birds and at another Fresno ranch. On Nov. 14, USDA added three more poultry ranches to the list of affected including one in Merced County, a turkey ranch with the loss of 53,200 birds and another one in Fresno County.
The locations of the poultry ranches are not far from the Pacific flyway, a major migratory route in the Western United States. In the case of Kern County, the egg ranch was close to the Kern Wildlife Refuge as well as nearby dairies. This is worrying observers that there appears to be a connection between all three vectors for the rapidly mutating virus.
Northern California poultry operations have been hard hit as well. Nationwide, outbreaks have claimed more than 21 million hens, so far in 2024.
Egg Prices
In California the impact on egg prices has been significant.
On Nov. 13, the USDA reported that a dozen large, white cage-free eggs cost about $5.26 per dozen in California. This is according to USDA market data for the week of Nov. 8. USDA says this is a “benchmark” price. The price is up from $2.81 a month earlier. That is almost double the benchmark, but may not reflect retail.
The last time California eggs were this high was in February when California egg prices – cage-free egg prices – peaked at $5.59 per dozen.
The cases of infected birds correspond with fall bird migrations that are spreading the virus throughout the state. Detections are higher in fall and spring as wild birds spread the virus when they migrate. This year the bird flu has taken its toll with the outbreak of H5N1, a highly transmissible and fatal strain of avian influenza, or bird flu. The outbreak started in early 2022 and rapidly grew into the largest bird flu outbreak in U.S. history.
Most recently, outbreaks affecting more than 2.84 million egg layers were reported in October at commercial facilities in Oregon, Washington and Utah, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
As of Nov. 8, the virus has affected over 105.2 million birds in the U.S. since January 2022, according to the CDC. The California egg shortage will likely have a pocketbook impact on holiday baking activity as the nation prepares for Thanksgiving; however, a recent USDA analysis suggests consumers may not see a huge jump.
“Large volume grocery retailers across the nation have launched their shell egg feature campaigns targeting holiday demand at relatively attractive price levels. Much of this is attributable to changes in the way shell eggs are being marketed with an increasing share (estimated at over half of all shell egg volume sold at retail) tied to production cost agreements not prone to fluctuation common in formula trading.”
There are about 378.5 million egg-laying chickens in the US. As of last year, there were 9.4 billion broiler chickens and 218 million turkeys processed, according to the USDA. Advocates note the high cost of the influenza just in the egg market. “With domestic sales of shell eggs and products amounting to seven billion dozen, consumers paid an incremental $15 billion as a result of the prolonged and uncontrolled infection.”
While bird flu is impacting poultry farms, another strain of the virus has impacted Central Valley dairies as well, spreading quickly since September to 291 dairy farms as of press time. Unlike poultry, dairy cows typically survive the virus, although milk production is expected to be impacted.
Avian flu is a worldwide phenomenon. In the past two weeks, the first cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) of the fall season have been reported in Albania, Great Britain, Romania, and now regions of Germany and Ukraine.
Despite the increase in US egg prices this holiday season, turkey prices are down from last year when supply was also affected by bird flu. Across the country, a 15-pound turkey costs an average of $31.16 ($2.08 per pound) in 2024, compared with $35.40 ($2.36 per pound) in 2023. That price reduction represents a price decrease of 12% from last year to now,” a report said. The lower price comes even as a U.S. Department of Agriculture report showed turkey production dipped more than 6% compared to this time last year.
Hen and Hoof
The spread of this strain of the virus appears to be affecting both the Central Valley poultry and dairy industries at the same time.
Just before Sept. 1 there were no reports of the virus in the Valley’s dairy industry. But as of Nov. 15, there are almost 300 diaries, mostly in Tulare and Kings Counties, impacted with new ones being added every day.
The Valley poultry industry has been on a similar viral timeline which coincides with the annual bird migration along the Pacific flyway that happens each fall. H5N1 largely infects wild birds, with waterfowl such as ducks and geese being the natural reservoirs for H5N1 viruses. Most H5N1 viruses are highly pathogenic avian influenza, meaning spillovers into other bird populations can lead to high mortality rates, including domesticated poultry.
A compounding factor for the spread of the virus is that both livestock are often on land located right next door or just down the road. The Central Valley is home for both industries with animals, transported in and out, and service vehicles going in and out of these large facilities every day.
The industry website Egg-News this week pointed out that research shows that the infections can be transmitted over a distance of up to a mile while attached to dust particles. Fall is harvest for a number of crops, including the nut industry, sending up plumes of dust in the Valley sky, at times associated with winds.
Egg-News points out that dairy cow-associated H5N1 viruses have jumped back into wild birds, and recent outbreaks in domestic poultry resembled H5N1 in dairy cows.
In an editorial Egg-News said “APHIS Needs a New Approach to Control HPAIr.” They recommend that USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) adopt vaccination as a disease control strategy for bird flu, with promising results from clinical trials. In May 2023, the U.S. authorized the vaccination of California condors against a type of avian flu.
Also, the USDA has approved field trials to test vaccines that could prevent dairy cows from getting the H5N1 strain of bird flu. The USDA approved the first field trials for the vaccine in September 2024. The USDA’s Center of Veterinary Biologics (CVB) is overseeing the trials. At least 24 companies are working on the vaccine, including Zoetis and Merck Animal Health.
If vaccines can save the U.S. poultry and dairy industry over the next year, the industry may have to worry about who heads up the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the agency which authorizes vaccines for animals and humans. Nominee Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has made it clear he is anti-vaccine but has yet to comment on the use of vaccines in agriculture if he is confirmed for the role.