Post by Nadica (She/Her) on Oct 28, 2024 2:18:14 GMT
7,544 New Cases of Diabetes in Children/Year from COVID - Published Oct 27, 2024
A recently published study on new onset diabetes in children within 6 months of COVID infection left me a bit stunned. At the six-month mark, the authors found children who had been infected had a 58% increased risk. It seemed worth explaining why this is so alarming.
There are 72.5 million children in the US. The baseline incidence of pediatric diabetes is 13.8 per 100,000 per year, or 72,500,000 x (13.8/100,000) = 10,005 new cases/year.
COVID seroprevalence studies suggest that 96.3% of children have been infected with COVID at least once, which equals 72,500,000 x 0.963 = 69,817,500 are at increased risk.
How do we calculate excess diabetes as a result of COVID in children? First, we need to calculate the rate due to COVID, which is only going to occur in the children infected with COVID. That rate is 0.58 x 13.8 per 100,000, or 8.004 per 100,000. That provides us with 69,817,500 x (8.004/100,000), or 5,588 new cases of diabetes among children per year, but that is a gross underestimate for many reasons.
First, the original study was only looking at risk within a few months of a COVID infection. That means that this risk figure is more akin to a point estimate than looking at lifetime risk. This is in part due to COVID being a vascular disease that causes microthrombi and focal tissue necrosis. I still suspect that most of the chronic disease burden from COVID infections will take a decade to become manifest.
Second, we also know that repeated infection increases the diabetes risk in adults by 70%, and we can use that number to estimate what happens in kids.
Let’s assume that half of the pediatric population in the US has been infected twice, which would be 34,908,750 facing this increased risk. The rate from repeat COVID infection would add 8.004 x 0.7 x 34,908,750, or an additional 8.004 x 0.7 x 34,908,750 / 100,000, or another 1,956 new cases of diabetes per year among those who were infected twice. The annual burden of diabetes from RECENT COVID infection then becomes 7,544 cases/year. It’s reasonable to assume that each subsequent infection increases that risk even further.
Here’s the real kicker. Type II diabetes really isn’t diagnosed until after the age of 40 in most people.
This further supports my argument than most of the disease burden of COVID is really many years off in the future. We have become so focused on the acute phase of the disease and are ignoring these other serious sequelae.
Similar calculations can be made with other diseases, but again, it would only be a small fraction of what is to come. This is but one example of why I have such a mix of emotions about COVID, ranging from anger, futility, and to depression. All of the numbers I just calculated are just the tip of the iceberg of what we are doing to future generations. We do not have the capacity to handle this scale of disease. We are handing future generations a dystopia of our own making between this, H5N1, and climate change. Those who have the power to make decisions to protect the public and fail to do so will not be remembered kindly by history.
A recently published study on new onset diabetes in children within 6 months of COVID infection left me a bit stunned. At the six-month mark, the authors found children who had been infected had a 58% increased risk. It seemed worth explaining why this is so alarming.
There are 72.5 million children in the US. The baseline incidence of pediatric diabetes is 13.8 per 100,000 per year, or 72,500,000 x (13.8/100,000) = 10,005 new cases/year.
COVID seroprevalence studies suggest that 96.3% of children have been infected with COVID at least once, which equals 72,500,000 x 0.963 = 69,817,500 are at increased risk.
How do we calculate excess diabetes as a result of COVID in children? First, we need to calculate the rate due to COVID, which is only going to occur in the children infected with COVID. That rate is 0.58 x 13.8 per 100,000, or 8.004 per 100,000. That provides us with 69,817,500 x (8.004/100,000), or 5,588 new cases of diabetes among children per year, but that is a gross underestimate for many reasons.
First, the original study was only looking at risk within a few months of a COVID infection. That means that this risk figure is more akin to a point estimate than looking at lifetime risk. This is in part due to COVID being a vascular disease that causes microthrombi and focal tissue necrosis. I still suspect that most of the chronic disease burden from COVID infections will take a decade to become manifest.
Second, we also know that repeated infection increases the diabetes risk in adults by 70%, and we can use that number to estimate what happens in kids.
Let’s assume that half of the pediatric population in the US has been infected twice, which would be 34,908,750 facing this increased risk. The rate from repeat COVID infection would add 8.004 x 0.7 x 34,908,750, or an additional 8.004 x 0.7 x 34,908,750 / 100,000, or another 1,956 new cases of diabetes per year among those who were infected twice. The annual burden of diabetes from RECENT COVID infection then becomes 7,544 cases/year. It’s reasonable to assume that each subsequent infection increases that risk even further.
Here’s the real kicker. Type II diabetes really isn’t diagnosed until after the age of 40 in most people.
This further supports my argument than most of the disease burden of COVID is really many years off in the future. We have become so focused on the acute phase of the disease and are ignoring these other serious sequelae.
Similar calculations can be made with other diseases, but again, it would only be a small fraction of what is to come. This is but one example of why I have such a mix of emotions about COVID, ranging from anger, futility, and to depression. All of the numbers I just calculated are just the tip of the iceberg of what we are doing to future generations. We do not have the capacity to handle this scale of disease. We are handing future generations a dystopia of our own making between this, H5N1, and climate change. Those who have the power to make decisions to protect the public and fail to do so will not be remembered kindly by history.