Post by Nadica (She/Her) on Oct 15, 2024 0:23:13 GMT
Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 13 October 2024
By Ben Clark
Covid infection levels in England have risen by 17% on last week, with around 1 in 91 people in England now infected with Covid as of 13 October. The risk of meeting an infected person in your everyday life remains Very High.
As an example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 3 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. A typical full single decker bus will have around 1 infected person breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be 2 infected people breathing out virus. If you work in a large, air-conditioned office or warehouse/factory without air purification, there will be 5 or 6 infected people. Remember, this is based on a statistical analysis and the real risk could be higher, for example if a group of infected people are sharing your train or bus. This is why we advise you to wear a respiratory filter mask in public places and on public transport. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.
Covid infection levels in England have increased steadily since the middle of August and are now just below the levels seen in the July peak. While new variants including XEC are contributing to this rise, the present wave seems to be mainly due to people catching Covid again a few weeks or months after their last infection. We call this a ‘re-infection’ wave.
Catching Covid usually means you cannot catch the same variant of Covid for a few weeks or months afterwards, because your immune system is able to fight off the virus. However, after a while, your immune system loses that ability to fight off the virus and you can catch the same variant of Covid again. This ability to be re-infected means that, at any time, a lot of people in England have Covid – what might be called the ‘standing infection level’. On top of that standing infection level, re-infection waves occur at intervals over the whole year, as happened in July.
Really big Covid waves occur when a highly infectious new variant of Covid comes along which evades the immunity which people may have from prior infections. Most of the population can catch such a new variant and, because there are no Covid precautions in place, millions of people do catch it. We see a huge spike in infections, hospitals under extreme pressure, and of course death, post-Covid conditions and Long Covid for tens of thousands of people. XEC seems to be this sort of new variant, and so we are predicting a large Winter Wave of Covid infections.
We urge everyone who is entitled to a free Covid vaccination to get it immediately. If you are not entitled to a free vaccination, please consider whether paying for the jab would be a good investment (if you can afford it, of course). Remember to wear a close-fitting respiratory mask (FFP2 or FFP3) when you have the jab – doctors’ surgeries and pharmacies are extremely high risk for catching Covid.
We have based our estimate of current Covid-19 infection levels in England on all the available data, including the Notification of Infectious Diseases (NOIDS) data dated 13 October. We feel that our estimate of roughly 1 in 91 people in England with Covid as of 13 October is a credible assessment of the current risk for the purposes of giving disabled and clinically vulnerable people information to manage their own risk. If you would like to know more about our methodology, please contact us.
Remember, Covid is airborne: the virus spreads mainly through the air. An infected person in an unventilated place creates a large invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke, ready for you to breathe in. Because the NHS has not improved the ventilation in its buildings, hospitals and GP practices are extremely dangerous places to catch Covid. NHS staff are now required to work even if they have Covid and there are no Covid precautions in place at most NHS buildings. Do avoid hospitals and GP practices unless your visit is essential and wear a tight-fitted filter mask (FFP2 or FFP3) or respirator all the time if you have to go there.
BuDS strongly recommends that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid public transport and indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3) or respirator. For more advice on how to avoid catching Covid, use this link.
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link. ( buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/ )
For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.
By Ben Clark
Covid infection levels in England have risen by 17% on last week, with around 1 in 91 people in England now infected with Covid as of 13 October. The risk of meeting an infected person in your everyday life remains Very High.
As an example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 3 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. A typical full single decker bus will have around 1 infected person breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be 2 infected people breathing out virus. If you work in a large, air-conditioned office or warehouse/factory without air purification, there will be 5 or 6 infected people. Remember, this is based on a statistical analysis and the real risk could be higher, for example if a group of infected people are sharing your train or bus. This is why we advise you to wear a respiratory filter mask in public places and on public transport. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.
Covid infection levels in England have increased steadily since the middle of August and are now just below the levels seen in the July peak. While new variants including XEC are contributing to this rise, the present wave seems to be mainly due to people catching Covid again a few weeks or months after their last infection. We call this a ‘re-infection’ wave.
Catching Covid usually means you cannot catch the same variant of Covid for a few weeks or months afterwards, because your immune system is able to fight off the virus. However, after a while, your immune system loses that ability to fight off the virus and you can catch the same variant of Covid again. This ability to be re-infected means that, at any time, a lot of people in England have Covid – what might be called the ‘standing infection level’. On top of that standing infection level, re-infection waves occur at intervals over the whole year, as happened in July.
Really big Covid waves occur when a highly infectious new variant of Covid comes along which evades the immunity which people may have from prior infections. Most of the population can catch such a new variant and, because there are no Covid precautions in place, millions of people do catch it. We see a huge spike in infections, hospitals under extreme pressure, and of course death, post-Covid conditions and Long Covid for tens of thousands of people. XEC seems to be this sort of new variant, and so we are predicting a large Winter Wave of Covid infections.
We urge everyone who is entitled to a free Covid vaccination to get it immediately. If you are not entitled to a free vaccination, please consider whether paying for the jab would be a good investment (if you can afford it, of course). Remember to wear a close-fitting respiratory mask (FFP2 or FFP3) when you have the jab – doctors’ surgeries and pharmacies are extremely high risk for catching Covid.
We have based our estimate of current Covid-19 infection levels in England on all the available data, including the Notification of Infectious Diseases (NOIDS) data dated 13 October. We feel that our estimate of roughly 1 in 91 people in England with Covid as of 13 October is a credible assessment of the current risk for the purposes of giving disabled and clinically vulnerable people information to manage their own risk. If you would like to know more about our methodology, please contact us.
Remember, Covid is airborne: the virus spreads mainly through the air. An infected person in an unventilated place creates a large invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke, ready for you to breathe in. Because the NHS has not improved the ventilation in its buildings, hospitals and GP practices are extremely dangerous places to catch Covid. NHS staff are now required to work even if they have Covid and there are no Covid precautions in place at most NHS buildings. Do avoid hospitals and GP practices unless your visit is essential and wear a tight-fitted filter mask (FFP2 or FFP3) or respirator all the time if you have to go there.
BuDS strongly recommends that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid public transport and indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3) or respirator. For more advice on how to avoid catching Covid, use this link.
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link. ( buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/ )
For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.