Post by Nadica (She/Her) on Jun 24, 2024 8:55:50 GMT
Between the flu, COVID and RSV, we have 'so many things circulating simultaneously'. Here's what the data says - Published June 20, 2024
If it feels like everyone around you is getting sick, you're probably right.
"We're not seeing a particularly extraordinary year in terms of flu or RSV in isolation," says infectious diseases physician and clinical microbiologist Paul Griffin.
"What we're experiencing, which is perhaps a little different, is we've got so many things circulating in relatively high levels simultaneously.
"It's a very significant thing for us to have to deal with and is creating a burden on our healthcare system."
Here's a snapshot of some of the most common illnesses making the rounds in our communities, and how you can stay safe this winter.
RSV cases have already overtaken the 2022 yearly total
According to the health department's National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS), Australia has already recorded over 100,000 cases of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).
That is already higher than the 2022 yearly total of 95,949 – and we're only halfway through the year.
Dr Griffin says there is a chance 2024 will surpass last year's total as well.
"We're still seeing a lot of RSV around," he told ABC News.
"The great difference this year of course is we have vaccines and antibodies to protect some of the most vulnerable.
"But it's probably too early to see a significant difference as a result of those interventions.
"So I do think there's a chance those numbers could climb."
"COVID case numbers are almost meaningless now because we know so few people are getting tested," Dr Griffin said.
"We know rapid antigen tests are probably still happening but we don't record those results.
"It may well be that our actual case numbers are many folds higher than what's being reported, five or 10 times more, perhaps."
Dr Griffin says the level of hospitalisations is one way of tracking the severity of COVID-19 in the community.
The Department of Health reports a seven-day rolling average of COVID-19 hospitalisations.
Eighty-one cases were admitted to hospital on June 12, however, the data is delayed by up to two weeks.
The flu saw record low levels in 2021 when pandemic restrictions – such as social distancing and wearing masks – were in place.
"It's really hard to know why we see the rates of all these infections that we do," Dr Griffin told ABC News.
"We know there's year to year fluctuations and some of these things will fluctuate year to year as well as every five years.
"We've also interrupted any patterns we used to have by what we did for COVID.
"We saw extraordinarily low levels of all these respiratory infections for a year and a half, two years, because of our interventions to reduce the spread of COVID.
"How that's altered our subsequent patterns is really hard to know."
But by already recording more than 10,000 whooping cough cases, this year's figures are nearly five times greater than the 2023 yearly total.
"I think everyone's fatigue and frustration at being mindful of reducing the transmission of all these things has led to all those good things we did during COVID happening at perhaps the lowest levels we've seen in a long time," Dr Griffin says.
"That's not big lockdowns and border restrictions – that's as simple as hand hygiene and staying home when you're unwell.
"The rates of all those things has declined and that will certainly be part of the explanation."
Hand hygiene and cough and sneeze etiquette are also "really important and effective," as is air quality and ventilation.
"Mask wearing does make a difference as well," Dr Griffin says.
"And, not suggesting we have widespread mandates, but we know if worn correctly they help, and of course vaccination.
"At the moment our flu vaccine rates are some of the worst we've seen in a long time.
"We've seen whooping cough come back, partly due to low vaccination rates, so we need to remind people of the importance of those."
Dr Griffin adds that vulnerable people need to make sure they are boosted against COVID-19.
"I think there's not enough messaging about the importance of vaccination."
If it feels like everyone around you is getting sick, you're probably right.
"We're not seeing a particularly extraordinary year in terms of flu or RSV in isolation," says infectious diseases physician and clinical microbiologist Paul Griffin.
"What we're experiencing, which is perhaps a little different, is we've got so many things circulating in relatively high levels simultaneously.
"It's a very significant thing for us to have to deal with and is creating a burden on our healthcare system."
Here's a snapshot of some of the most common illnesses making the rounds in our communities, and how you can stay safe this winter.
RSV cases have already overtaken the 2022 yearly total
According to the health department's National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS), Australia has already recorded over 100,000 cases of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).
That is already higher than the 2022 yearly total of 95,949 – and we're only halfway through the year.
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) figures continue to rise in Australia
Dr Griffin says there is a chance 2024 will surpass last year's total as well.
"We're still seeing a lot of RSV around," he told ABC News.
"The great difference this year of course is we have vaccines and antibodies to protect some of the most vulnerable.
"But it's probably too early to see a significant difference as a result of those interventions.
"So I do think there's a chance those numbers could climb."
COVID-19 figures are 'meaningless' now
While it might look like COVID-19 cases are down significantly, this is because it is no longer a requirement to report positive RAT results."COVID case numbers are almost meaningless now because we know so few people are getting tested," Dr Griffin said.
"We know rapid antigen tests are probably still happening but we don't record those results.
"It may well be that our actual case numbers are many folds higher than what's being reported, five or 10 times more, perhaps."
Dr Griffin says the level of hospitalisations is one way of tracking the severity of COVID-19 in the community.
The Department of Health reports a seven-day rolling average of COVID-19 hospitalisations.
Eighty-one cases were admitted to hospital on June 12, however, the data is delayed by up to two weeks.
Influenza cases are on par with the previous two years
According to the NNDSS, Australia has recorded more than 100,000 laboratory confirmed cases of influenza this year.The flu saw record low levels in 2021 when pandemic restrictions – such as social distancing and wearing masks – were in place.
"It's really hard to know why we see the rates of all these infections that we do," Dr Griffin told ABC News.
"We know there's year to year fluctuations and some of these things will fluctuate year to year as well as every five years.
"We've also interrupted any patterns we used to have by what we did for COVID.
"We saw extraordinarily low levels of all these respiratory infections for a year and a half, two years, because of our interventions to reduce the spread of COVID.
"How that's altered our subsequent patterns is really hard to know."
Whooping cough is returning to pre-pandemic levels
Along with the flu, cases of whooping cough also declined significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic.But by already recording more than 10,000 whooping cough cases, this year's figures are nearly five times greater than the 2023 yearly total.
"I think everyone's fatigue and frustration at being mindful of reducing the transmission of all these things has led to all those good things we did during COVID happening at perhaps the lowest levels we've seen in a long time," Dr Griffin says.
"That's not big lockdowns and border restrictions – that's as simple as hand hygiene and staying home when you're unwell.
"The rates of all those things has declined and that will certainly be part of the explanation."
How to avoid getting sick (or infecting others) this winter
Dr Griffin recommends "staying home if you're unwell, and particularly staying away from vulnerable people."Hand hygiene and cough and sneeze etiquette are also "really important and effective," as is air quality and ventilation.
"Mask wearing does make a difference as well," Dr Griffin says.
"And, not suggesting we have widespread mandates, but we know if worn correctly they help, and of course vaccination.
"At the moment our flu vaccine rates are some of the worst we've seen in a long time.
"We've seen whooping cough come back, partly due to low vaccination rates, so we need to remind people of the importance of those."
Dr Griffin adds that vulnerable people need to make sure they are boosted against COVID-19.
"I think there's not enough messaging about the importance of vaccination."