Post by Nadica (She/Her) on Aug 25, 2024 21:38:31 GMT
THE OTHER SIDE: Knee-deep in COVID - Published Aug 25, 2024
As recent statistics demonstrate, the COVID virus is ever adaptable. And, as a result, we are engaged in an incredibly complex chess match with a worthy viral opponent where the losers get sick.
It is sometimes hard for me to know where I am. I spent last week trying to keep my mind from being buried beneath a Trumpian avalanche of lies, mad rantings, and rapid fire recriminations. And trying to keep up and hold onto truth often taxed my mental capacity while eluding the abilities of even the most professional fact-checkers.
This week, I am coping with the seemingly collective decision to pretend the COVID epidemic is gone. And unless you are one of those healthcare workers treating those still getting sick, or a medical researcher, or a quirky journalist, you are surrounded by those who don’t want to go back to working at home, online learning, Zoom calls, and hand sanitizers, to the fear and loathing. Especially not to masking. There are now so many Americans unwilling to accept, and deal with, the inconvenient knowledge that COVID remains airborne, and can be so easily spread in indoor spaces by both those who know they’re sick and those who don’t.
There isn’t a politician who really wants to remind the voters that COVID is still around, that the COVID summer surge was worse than predicted, or that everyone who really knows is doing their best to perfect the best possible COVID vaccine to lessen the effects of the fall/winter surge and focus in on the variant that will cause the most damage to public health.
The Mayo Clinic offers a wealth of information about “FLiRT and why you may need a new COVID-19 vaccination.”
Deb Balzer writes:
A new variant of COVID-19, known as FliRT, is now the most dominant strain in the U.S. This variant, which evolved from the omicron strain, is characterized by changes in its spike protein — the part of the virus that binds to host cells. Dr. Matthew Binnicker, director of the Clinical Virology Laboratory at Mayo Clinic, says that these changes could increase the virus’ ability to infect cells and evade the immune system, even in people who have previously been infected or vaccinated.
‘This variant can evade the immune response more effectively than prior versions of the virus. If you’ve been infected, or you’ve been vaccinated, and you’ve got some antibodies in your system, those antibodies may not recognize the protein on the surface of the virus as well,’ says Dr. Binnicker. (Emphasis added.)
Mike Hoerger directs the Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative and has published his PMC-19 Dashboard since August 2, 2023:
(if embed doesn't work): x.com/michael_hoerger/status/1825411021650973067
Just the word “variant” brings with it an inconvenient anticipation of dread and danger. As recent statistics demonstrate, the COVID virus is ever adaptable. And, as a result, we are engaged in an incredibly complex chess match with a worthy viral opponent where the losers get sick. In this battle, those infected but already vaccinated can at least mitigate their symptoms with Paxlovid, while those most vulnerable or far less lucky may end up in intensive care or die.
There are fewer places testing for COVID, fewer places keeping track of test results, and fewer places offering up-to-date statistics about those results. Walgreens still offers this critical information:
With positivity results of close to 40 percent, it is not surprising that COVID still kills. This map by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reveals that, depending on where you live in the U.S., COVID is responsible for anywhere between two and seven percent of deaths:
Our World in Data provides a look at the rise and fall over time of COVID deaths. You can easily see the still upward trend of fatalities in the U.S.:
We have suffered greatly from COVID misinformation. Start with Donald Trump’s unwillingness to fully acknowledge the disastrous impact of the disease; his political need to minimize the numbers of cases and his bizarre attempt to persuade people to rely on quack remedies; and his opposition to masking and the need to reduce social contact. His ignorance helped fortify a growing suspicion of vaccination and medical and scientific expertise.
Without routine testing and maximum transparency, it is increasingly more difficult to recognize what is really happening with COVID and most effectively fight back. Luckily, there are some extraordinarily responsible medical professionals and researchers who continue to write and warn about the COVID threat. Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD, is in her words “an epidemiologist, wife, and mom of two little girls.” She publishes a newsletter, “Your Local Epidemiologist,” designed “to ‘translate’ the ever-evolving public health science so that people will be well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions.” Her recent issue tells us:
Covid-19: Very high
Viral activity in wastewater—our best indicator of Covid–19 spread—is still ‘very high,’ marking a very impressive summer wave. In fact, levels in the West are now the worst on record since the Omicron tsunami in 2021. There are signs of declining rates in the South and Midwest and a plateau in the West. However, recent wastewater signals can be unstable (look at that rollercoaster in the West below), so I’m not getting too excited yet.
The higher levels found in wastewater are reflected in the growing numbers of Americans being hospitalized with COVID:
There are so many ways to lose in chess, but one of the scariest ways to lose to COVID is to suffer from Long COVID, to be continually affected by a complex series of symptoms still largely unexplained and most times impervious to treatment. Like other ailments that don’t leave an easy-to-observe mark, those who don’t have it can easily imagine that Long COVID sufferers might be exaggerating, or worse, psychosomatically inventing it all.
The CDC puts it this way:
People with Long COVID can have a wide variety of symptoms that can range from mild to severe and may be similar to symptoms from other illnesses. Symptoms can last weeks, months, or years after COVID-19 illness and can emerge, persist, resolve, and reemerge over different lengths of time. Long COVID may not affect everyone the same way. Some people can experience health problems from different types and combinations of symptoms that may:
• Be difficult to recognize or diagnose
• Require comprehensive car• Result in disability
Fatigue, brain fog, and post-exertional malaise (PEM) are commonly reported symptoms, but more than 200 Long COVID symptoms have been identified …
General symptoms
• Tiredness or fatigue that interferes with daily life
• Symptoms that get worse after physical or mental effort
• Fever
Respiratory and heart symptoms
• Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
• Coughing
• Chest pain
• Fast-beating or pounding heart (also known as heart palpitations)
Neurological symptoms
• Difficulty thinking or concentrating (sometimes referred to as “brain fog”)
• Headaches
• Sleep problems
• Dizziness when you stand up (lightheadedness)
• Pins-and-needles feelings
• Change in smell or taste
• Depression or anxiety
Digestive Symptoms
• Diarrhea
• Stomach pain
• Constipation
Other symptoms
• Joint or muscle pain
• Rash
• Changes in menstrual cycle
(Emphasis added.)
One of the most difficult challenges facing those with Long COVID is the overwhelming uncertainty, the inability of many doctors to diagnose the disease with confidence and conviction, let alone lay out an effective strategy for combating it:
Given this lack of certainty, there is no way yet to accurately determine the number of Americans suffering from Long COVID. But let me share some estimates of those with symptoms and the larger impact on the country at large.
More than two years ago, the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based nonprofit research institute, issued a report on how Long COVID was affecting the labor market:
Around 16 million working-age Americans (those aged 18 to 65) have long COVID today. Of those, 2 to 4 million are out of work due to long COVID. The annual cost of those lost wages alone is around $170 billion a year (and potentially as high as $230 billion).
This data is from 2022, but an August 9, 2024 article in The New York Times refers to a just-published study in Nature Medicine, “Long COVID science, research and policy,” that puts the number of those who have had Long COVID at the staggering figure of 400 million worldwide:
The team estimated that the economic cost — from factors like health care services and patients unable to return to work — is about $1 trillion worldwide each year, or about 1 percent of the global economy.
The report … is an effort to summarize the knowledge about and effects of long COVID across the globe four years after it first emerged. It also aims to ‘provide a road map for policy and research priorities,’ said one author, Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly, the chief of research and development at the V.A. St. Louis Health Care System and a clinical epidemiologist at Washington University in St. Louis …
The authors evaluated scores of studies and metrics to estimate that as of the end of 2023, about 6 percent of adults and about 1 percent of children — or about 400 million people — had ever had long Covid since the pandemic began. They said the estimate accounted for the fact that new cases slowed in 2022 and 2023 because of vaccines and the milder Omicron variant. They suggested that the actual number might be higher because their estimate included only people who developed long Covid after they had symptoms during the infectious stage of the virus, and it did not include people who had more than one Covid infection. (Emphasis added.)
Another recent study, “The public health and economic burden of long COVID in Australia, 2022–24: a modelling study,” estimated the number of people with Long COVID and calculated Australia’s economic losses:
They calculated:
Our model projected that the number of people with long COVID following a single infection in 2022 would peak in September 2022, when 310,341 – 1,374, 805 people (1.2–5.4% of Australians) would have symptoms of long COVID, declining to 172,530 – 872,799 people (0.7–3.4%) in December 2024, including 7,902 – 30,002 children aged 0–4 years (0.6–2.2%) … The estimated mean GDP loss caused by the projected decline in labour supply and reduced use of other production factors was $9.6 billion (95% CI, $4.7–15.2 billion …
Believe me, I appreciate the desire to no longer pay attention. Still, by denying the prevalence of COVID, we ourselves remain vulnerable. But we also do a disservice to those who suffer with COVID and Long COVID, and their friends and families. And we endanger those who, by not taking the greatest precautions, may very well come down with COVID in the future. In the process, we underestimate and fail to appreciate the significant and valiant work performed by those essential professionals in nursing homes and hospitals still treating COVID patients.
Their numbers are significant. Here is a chart from the CDC detailing cases, hospitalizations, and deaths up to August 10, 2024. Notice the upward momentum for all indicators:
On August 9, 2024, NPR discussed how scientists and health professionals now chart COVID:
Four years after SARS-CoV2 sparked a devastating global pandemic, U.S. health officials now consider COVID-19 an endemic disease. ‘At this point, COVID-19 can be described as endemic throughout the world,’ Aron Hall, the deputy director for science at the CDC’s coronavirus and other respiratory viruses division, told NPR in an interview.
That means … the categorization does acknowledge that the SARS-CoV2 virus that causes COVID will continue to circulate and cause illness indefinitely, underscoring the importance of people getting vaccinated and taking other steps to reduce their risk for the foreseeable future.
Kaity Kline continued NPR’s COVID coverage on August 15, 2024:
COVID is on the rise this summer. Here’s why and what else you should know. If it seems like a lot of people are getting COVID right now, you’re not imagining it. We’re in the middle of a worldwide summer COVID-19 wave.
A high or very high level of COVID-19 virus is being detected in wastewater in almost every state, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. At least 10 other states have a high amount of COVID in the wastewater. ‘We’re now relying on wastewater data, because people aren’t testing. We can’t have other reliable measures,’ said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the School of Public Health at Brown University and former White House COVID-19 response coordinator … He said that based on the wastewater data, ‘this is turning out to be possibly the biggest summer wave we’ve had.’…
There are two waves a year: one during summer and another during winter. The summer wave tends to be a little smaller, while the winter wave is bigger. But unlike the flu, which has a wave in the winter and almost no cases after, COVID infections can rise in between waves. ‘It’s looking like this is probably not a seasonal virus, so it will likely be year round,’ said Dr. Otto Yang, associate chief of infectious diseases and UCLA and professor of medicine …
NPR highlighted the so-called “Flip” variants:
COVID is continuing to evolve very rapidly, and every three or four months we get a new COVID variant. This summer, the dominant strains of COVID are KP.3.1.1, accounting for 27.8% of U.S cases and KP.3, accounting for 20.1 … Jha said that these variants evolved from Omicron. ‘It doesn’t seem like these variants are more deadly. But they are almost certainly more contagious,’ said Yang. ‘So if you have something that’s equally deadly but more contagious, you will see more severe illnesses and deaths.’
Having continued to mask in indoor spaces, I know first-hand how few people are doing it. And I have found myself on the receiving end of never-ending quizzical looks. Yes, masking continues to be a royal pain in the ass, more annoying as the temperature rises. Yet I am comforted by the reality—knock on formica—that I haven’t yet gotten COVID, though so many of my friends have.
Unless you have been to their website, you are probably not aware that the Mayo Clinic still counsels masking:
Now on to vaccination. Considering all we have learned about the effectiveness of the vaccines in limiting the worst effects of COVID, it is incredibly concerning how misinformation and skepticism has kept vaccination levels so low. Here are the CDC statistics for adults ages 18 and up:
Adult COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage
COVID-19 vaccination coverage estimates among adults 18 years and older are based on data from CDC’s National Immunization Survey–Adult COVID Module. Estimates of vaccination coverage are based on respondent self-report.
• As of May 11, 2024, 22.5% (95% Confidence Interval: 22.1%-22.9%) of adults reported having received an updated 2023-24 COVID-19 vaccine since September 14, 2023.
• An additional 10.3% (9.1%-11.5%) reported that they definitely plan to get vaccinated.
• Vaccination coverage increased by age and was highest among adults 75 years and older [41.5% (39.9%-43.2%)].
• White adults had higher vaccination coverage than adults in all other race and ethnicity groups, with coverage ranging from 15.6% (12.5%-18.7%) among American Indian/Alaska Native and 16.2% (15.0%-17.4%) among Hispanic adults to 25.6% (25.1%-26.0%) among non-Hispanic White adults.
• Vaccination coverage was lower among adults residing in rural areas [17.9% (17.1%-18.6%)] than among those living in suburban [22.7% (22.2%-23.2%)] and urban [24.0% (23.2%-24.8%)] areas.
• Vaccination coverage was higher among insured adults [24.4% (24.0%-24.8%)] than uninsured adults [9.3% (8.4%-10.2%)].
• Across states and the District of Columbia, vaccination coverage ranged from 10.7% (9.4%-12.0%) in Mississippi to 41.6% (38.0%-45.3%) in Vermont.
• Based on interviews conducted April 1 to 27, 2024, among adults 65 years and older, 7.1% (6.2%-8.0%) reported receiving 2 doses of the updated COVID-19 vaccine.
(Emphasis added.)
Here is the CDC’s illustration of the percentage of adults who have received the COVID vaccine over time:
Child COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage
COVID-19 vaccination coverage for children 6 months through 17 years is based on data from CDC’s National Immunization Survey–Flu (NIS-Flu). Estimates of vaccination coverage are based on parental report.
• As of May 11, 2024, 14.4% (95% Confidence Interval: 13.9%-14.9%) of children were reported to be up to date with the 2023-24 COVID-19 vaccine.
• An additional 8.2% (6.7%-9.7%) of children had a parent who reported they definitely planned to get their child vaccinated.
• Reported receipt of the COVID-19 vaccine was low across all socio-demographic subgroups and consistently varied by child’s age, race and ethnicity, poverty status, urbanicity, and mother’s education level.
(Emphasis added.)
Here is the CDC’s illustration of the percentage of children ages six months to 17 years who have received the COVID vaccine over time:
Dr. Eric Topol is another of the scientists who has been indomitable in his efforts to educate us about the continuing threat of COVID. The August 3, 2024 installment of his newsletter “Ground Truths” offers this look at the summer wave:
It’s related to the variants KP.3 and KP.3.1.1, which together now account for more than half of new cases in the US. And KP.3.1.1 is on the move, overtaking KP.3 as shown by the new CDC data below. A big jump in the past 2 weeks. Fortunately, the rise in levels of the virus, still going up in all 4 major US regions (most recent CDC data below) has not been linked with as much severe Covid (absolute increase) as was seen in prior waves, but compared to last week there was a relative increase of 25% of deaths and 12% increase in emergency room visits due to Covid. No matter how you look at it, this is not a benign wave, folks.
Moreover, besides people getting sick from Covid, typically now from a recurrent bout (often 3rd or more), there will be more people developing Long Covid, as Ziyad Al-Aly and colleagues recently published — less new cases of Long Covid but still a risk, especially in unvaccinated individuals.
Why is this happening?
The virus is relentlessly evolving, getting further and further away as an antigen (how our immune system ‘sees’ the virus) than the strains of virus in the early years of the pandemic … The virus will not stop here, despite our desire to will it way. It will continue to find new ways to infect and reinfect us, under selection pressure from our prior immunity (be it infections, vaccinations, or combinations). We may also see another “Omicron-like event” in the times ahead, with a profoundly altered virus spike, tens of new mutations, as seen with BA.1 and BA.2.86 (the latter eventually led to JN.1)
… [and there] is the blunting of our immune response, the big issue of waning immunity. The vaccine boosters only last 4-6 months for protection from severe Covid, do little after early weeks for any protection from infections or spread. The same goes for infections. Neutralizing antibody levels go down. Our interferon first line of defense gets blocked … The virus evolves and, at the same time, our immune response wanes. That’s not a good combination.
The other feature that promotes the virus is our complete let down of mitigation that we know (despite misinformation and disinformation) works. Few people are masking. Little has been done to improve air quality or ventilation. Indoor events are being held with big crowds, making believe that the virus has gone away. It hasn’t. It won’t. (Emphasis added.)
Dr. Jetelina puts it this way:
We are knee-deep in a substantial Covid-19 infection wave. Wastewater levels—a good indicator of community spread—remain high and continue to increase, especially in the South and the West, where levels are coming close to last winter’s. Thankfully, immunity keeps our hospitals from overflowing at this point, but severe disease trends continue to mirror infections. For example, in California, hospitalizations this summer are as high as last winter.
The great Chinese sage Confucius put it this way:
These are the four abuses: desire to succeed in order to make oneself famous; taking credit for the labors of others; refusal to correct one’s errors despite advice; refusal to change one’s ideas despite warnings.
You have been warned. We are knee-deep in COVID.
As recent statistics demonstrate, the COVID virus is ever adaptable. And, as a result, we are engaged in an incredibly complex chess match with a worthy viral opponent where the losers get sick.
It is sometimes hard for me to know where I am. I spent last week trying to keep my mind from being buried beneath a Trumpian avalanche of lies, mad rantings, and rapid fire recriminations. And trying to keep up and hold onto truth often taxed my mental capacity while eluding the abilities of even the most professional fact-checkers.
This week, I am coping with the seemingly collective decision to pretend the COVID epidemic is gone. And unless you are one of those healthcare workers treating those still getting sick, or a medical researcher, or a quirky journalist, you are surrounded by those who don’t want to go back to working at home, online learning, Zoom calls, and hand sanitizers, to the fear and loathing. Especially not to masking. There are now so many Americans unwilling to accept, and deal with, the inconvenient knowledge that COVID remains airborne, and can be so easily spread in indoor spaces by both those who know they’re sick and those who don’t.
There isn’t a politician who really wants to remind the voters that COVID is still around, that the COVID summer surge was worse than predicted, or that everyone who really knows is doing their best to perfect the best possible COVID vaccine to lessen the effects of the fall/winter surge and focus in on the variant that will cause the most damage to public health.
The Mayo Clinic offers a wealth of information about “FLiRT and why you may need a new COVID-19 vaccination.”
Deb Balzer writes:
A new variant of COVID-19, known as FliRT, is now the most dominant strain in the U.S. This variant, which evolved from the omicron strain, is characterized by changes in its spike protein — the part of the virus that binds to host cells. Dr. Matthew Binnicker, director of the Clinical Virology Laboratory at Mayo Clinic, says that these changes could increase the virus’ ability to infect cells and evade the immune system, even in people who have previously been infected or vaccinated.
‘This variant can evade the immune response more effectively than prior versions of the virus. If you’ve been infected, or you’ve been vaccinated, and you’ve got some antibodies in your system, those antibodies may not recognize the protein on the surface of the virus as well,’ says Dr. Binnicker. (Emphasis added.)
Mike Hoerger directs the Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative and has published his PMC-19 Dashboard since August 2, 2023:
(if embed doesn't work): x.com/michael_hoerger/status/1825411021650973067
Just the word “variant” brings with it an inconvenient anticipation of dread and danger. As recent statistics demonstrate, the COVID virus is ever adaptable. And, as a result, we are engaged in an incredibly complex chess match with a worthy viral opponent where the losers get sick. In this battle, those infected but already vaccinated can at least mitigate their symptoms with Paxlovid, while those most vulnerable or far less lucky may end up in intensive care or die.
There are fewer places testing for COVID, fewer places keeping track of test results, and fewer places offering up-to-date statistics about those results. Walgreens still offers this critical information:
With positivity results of close to 40 percent, it is not surprising that COVID still kills. This map by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reveals that, depending on where you live in the U.S., COVID is responsible for anywhere between two and seven percent of deaths:
Our World in Data provides a look at the rise and fall over time of COVID deaths. You can easily see the still upward trend of fatalities in the U.S.:
We have suffered greatly from COVID misinformation. Start with Donald Trump’s unwillingness to fully acknowledge the disastrous impact of the disease; his political need to minimize the numbers of cases and his bizarre attempt to persuade people to rely on quack remedies; and his opposition to masking and the need to reduce social contact. His ignorance helped fortify a growing suspicion of vaccination and medical and scientific expertise.
Without routine testing and maximum transparency, it is increasingly more difficult to recognize what is really happening with COVID and most effectively fight back. Luckily, there are some extraordinarily responsible medical professionals and researchers who continue to write and warn about the COVID threat. Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD, is in her words “an epidemiologist, wife, and mom of two little girls.” She publishes a newsletter, “Your Local Epidemiologist,” designed “to ‘translate’ the ever-evolving public health science so that people will be well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions.” Her recent issue tells us:
Covid-19: Very high
Viral activity in wastewater—our best indicator of Covid–19 spread—is still ‘very high,’ marking a very impressive summer wave. In fact, levels in the West are now the worst on record since the Omicron tsunami in 2021. There are signs of declining rates in the South and Midwest and a plateau in the West. However, recent wastewater signals can be unstable (look at that rollercoaster in the West below), so I’m not getting too excited yet.
The higher levels found in wastewater are reflected in the growing numbers of Americans being hospitalized with COVID:
There are so many ways to lose in chess, but one of the scariest ways to lose to COVID is to suffer from Long COVID, to be continually affected by a complex series of symptoms still largely unexplained and most times impervious to treatment. Like other ailments that don’t leave an easy-to-observe mark, those who don’t have it can easily imagine that Long COVID sufferers might be exaggerating, or worse, psychosomatically inventing it all.
The CDC puts it this way:
People with Long COVID can have a wide variety of symptoms that can range from mild to severe and may be similar to symptoms from other illnesses. Symptoms can last weeks, months, or years after COVID-19 illness and can emerge, persist, resolve, and reemerge over different lengths of time. Long COVID may not affect everyone the same way. Some people can experience health problems from different types and combinations of symptoms that may:
• Be difficult to recognize or diagnose
• Require comprehensive car• Result in disability
Fatigue, brain fog, and post-exertional malaise (PEM) are commonly reported symptoms, but more than 200 Long COVID symptoms have been identified …
General symptoms
• Tiredness or fatigue that interferes with daily life
• Symptoms that get worse after physical or mental effort
• Fever
Respiratory and heart symptoms
• Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
• Coughing
• Chest pain
• Fast-beating or pounding heart (also known as heart palpitations)
Neurological symptoms
• Difficulty thinking or concentrating (sometimes referred to as “brain fog”)
• Headaches
• Sleep problems
• Dizziness when you stand up (lightheadedness)
• Pins-and-needles feelings
• Change in smell or taste
• Depression or anxiety
Digestive Symptoms
• Diarrhea
• Stomach pain
• Constipation
Other symptoms
• Joint or muscle pain
• Rash
• Changes in menstrual cycle
(Emphasis added.)
One of the most difficult challenges facing those with Long COVID is the overwhelming uncertainty, the inability of many doctors to diagnose the disease with confidence and conviction, let alone lay out an effective strategy for combating it:
Given this lack of certainty, there is no way yet to accurately determine the number of Americans suffering from Long COVID. But let me share some estimates of those with symptoms and the larger impact on the country at large.
More than two years ago, the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based nonprofit research institute, issued a report on how Long COVID was affecting the labor market:
Around 16 million working-age Americans (those aged 18 to 65) have long COVID today. Of those, 2 to 4 million are out of work due to long COVID. The annual cost of those lost wages alone is around $170 billion a year (and potentially as high as $230 billion).
This data is from 2022, but an August 9, 2024 article in The New York Times refers to a just-published study in Nature Medicine, “Long COVID science, research and policy,” that puts the number of those who have had Long COVID at the staggering figure of 400 million worldwide:
The team estimated that the economic cost — from factors like health care services and patients unable to return to work — is about $1 trillion worldwide each year, or about 1 percent of the global economy.
The report … is an effort to summarize the knowledge about and effects of long COVID across the globe four years after it first emerged. It also aims to ‘provide a road map for policy and research priorities,’ said one author, Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly, the chief of research and development at the V.A. St. Louis Health Care System and a clinical epidemiologist at Washington University in St. Louis …
The authors evaluated scores of studies and metrics to estimate that as of the end of 2023, about 6 percent of adults and about 1 percent of children — or about 400 million people — had ever had long Covid since the pandemic began. They said the estimate accounted for the fact that new cases slowed in 2022 and 2023 because of vaccines and the milder Omicron variant. They suggested that the actual number might be higher because their estimate included only people who developed long Covid after they had symptoms during the infectious stage of the virus, and it did not include people who had more than one Covid infection. (Emphasis added.)
Another recent study, “The public health and economic burden of long COVID in Australia, 2022–24: a modelling study,” estimated the number of people with Long COVID and calculated Australia’s economic losses:
They calculated:
Our model projected that the number of people with long COVID following a single infection in 2022 would peak in September 2022, when 310,341 – 1,374, 805 people (1.2–5.4% of Australians) would have symptoms of long COVID, declining to 172,530 – 872,799 people (0.7–3.4%) in December 2024, including 7,902 – 30,002 children aged 0–4 years (0.6–2.2%) … The estimated mean GDP loss caused by the projected decline in labour supply and reduced use of other production factors was $9.6 billion (95% CI, $4.7–15.2 billion …
Believe me, I appreciate the desire to no longer pay attention. Still, by denying the prevalence of COVID, we ourselves remain vulnerable. But we also do a disservice to those who suffer with COVID and Long COVID, and their friends and families. And we endanger those who, by not taking the greatest precautions, may very well come down with COVID in the future. In the process, we underestimate and fail to appreciate the significant and valiant work performed by those essential professionals in nursing homes and hospitals still treating COVID patients.
Their numbers are significant. Here is a chart from the CDC detailing cases, hospitalizations, and deaths up to August 10, 2024. Notice the upward momentum for all indicators:
On August 9, 2024, NPR discussed how scientists and health professionals now chart COVID:
Four years after SARS-CoV2 sparked a devastating global pandemic, U.S. health officials now consider COVID-19 an endemic disease. ‘At this point, COVID-19 can be described as endemic throughout the world,’ Aron Hall, the deputy director for science at the CDC’s coronavirus and other respiratory viruses division, told NPR in an interview.
That means … the categorization does acknowledge that the SARS-CoV2 virus that causes COVID will continue to circulate and cause illness indefinitely, underscoring the importance of people getting vaccinated and taking other steps to reduce their risk for the foreseeable future.
Kaity Kline continued NPR’s COVID coverage on August 15, 2024:
COVID is on the rise this summer. Here’s why and what else you should know. If it seems like a lot of people are getting COVID right now, you’re not imagining it. We’re in the middle of a worldwide summer COVID-19 wave.
A high or very high level of COVID-19 virus is being detected in wastewater in almost every state, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. At least 10 other states have a high amount of COVID in the wastewater. ‘We’re now relying on wastewater data, because people aren’t testing. We can’t have other reliable measures,’ said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the School of Public Health at Brown University and former White House COVID-19 response coordinator … He said that based on the wastewater data, ‘this is turning out to be possibly the biggest summer wave we’ve had.’…
There are two waves a year: one during summer and another during winter. The summer wave tends to be a little smaller, while the winter wave is bigger. But unlike the flu, which has a wave in the winter and almost no cases after, COVID infections can rise in between waves. ‘It’s looking like this is probably not a seasonal virus, so it will likely be year round,’ said Dr. Otto Yang, associate chief of infectious diseases and UCLA and professor of medicine …
NPR highlighted the so-called “Flip” variants:
COVID is continuing to evolve very rapidly, and every three or four months we get a new COVID variant. This summer, the dominant strains of COVID are KP.3.1.1, accounting for 27.8% of U.S cases and KP.3, accounting for 20.1 … Jha said that these variants evolved from Omicron. ‘It doesn’t seem like these variants are more deadly. But they are almost certainly more contagious,’ said Yang. ‘So if you have something that’s equally deadly but more contagious, you will see more severe illnesses and deaths.’
Having continued to mask in indoor spaces, I know first-hand how few people are doing it. And I have found myself on the receiving end of never-ending quizzical looks. Yes, masking continues to be a royal pain in the ass, more annoying as the temperature rises. Yet I am comforted by the reality—knock on formica—that I haven’t yet gotten COVID, though so many of my friends have.
Unless you have been to their website, you are probably not aware that the Mayo Clinic still counsels masking:
Now on to vaccination. Considering all we have learned about the effectiveness of the vaccines in limiting the worst effects of COVID, it is incredibly concerning how misinformation and skepticism has kept vaccination levels so low. Here are the CDC statistics for adults ages 18 and up:
Adult COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage
COVID-19 vaccination coverage estimates among adults 18 years and older are based on data from CDC’s National Immunization Survey–Adult COVID Module. Estimates of vaccination coverage are based on respondent self-report.
• As of May 11, 2024, 22.5% (95% Confidence Interval: 22.1%-22.9%) of adults reported having received an updated 2023-24 COVID-19 vaccine since September 14, 2023.
• An additional 10.3% (9.1%-11.5%) reported that they definitely plan to get vaccinated.
• Vaccination coverage increased by age and was highest among adults 75 years and older [41.5% (39.9%-43.2%)].
• White adults had higher vaccination coverage than adults in all other race and ethnicity groups, with coverage ranging from 15.6% (12.5%-18.7%) among American Indian/Alaska Native and 16.2% (15.0%-17.4%) among Hispanic adults to 25.6% (25.1%-26.0%) among non-Hispanic White adults.
• Vaccination coverage was lower among adults residing in rural areas [17.9% (17.1%-18.6%)] than among those living in suburban [22.7% (22.2%-23.2%)] and urban [24.0% (23.2%-24.8%)] areas.
• Vaccination coverage was higher among insured adults [24.4% (24.0%-24.8%)] than uninsured adults [9.3% (8.4%-10.2%)].
• Across states and the District of Columbia, vaccination coverage ranged from 10.7% (9.4%-12.0%) in Mississippi to 41.6% (38.0%-45.3%) in Vermont.
• Based on interviews conducted April 1 to 27, 2024, among adults 65 years and older, 7.1% (6.2%-8.0%) reported receiving 2 doses of the updated COVID-19 vaccine.
(Emphasis added.)
Here is the CDC’s illustration of the percentage of adults who have received the COVID vaccine over time:
Child COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage
COVID-19 vaccination coverage for children 6 months through 17 years is based on data from CDC’s National Immunization Survey–Flu (NIS-Flu). Estimates of vaccination coverage are based on parental report.
• As of May 11, 2024, 14.4% (95% Confidence Interval: 13.9%-14.9%) of children were reported to be up to date with the 2023-24 COVID-19 vaccine.
• An additional 8.2% (6.7%-9.7%) of children had a parent who reported they definitely planned to get their child vaccinated.
• Reported receipt of the COVID-19 vaccine was low across all socio-demographic subgroups and consistently varied by child’s age, race and ethnicity, poverty status, urbanicity, and mother’s education level.
(Emphasis added.)
Here is the CDC’s illustration of the percentage of children ages six months to 17 years who have received the COVID vaccine over time:
Dr. Eric Topol is another of the scientists who has been indomitable in his efforts to educate us about the continuing threat of COVID. The August 3, 2024 installment of his newsletter “Ground Truths” offers this look at the summer wave:
It’s related to the variants KP.3 and KP.3.1.1, which together now account for more than half of new cases in the US. And KP.3.1.1 is on the move, overtaking KP.3 as shown by the new CDC data below. A big jump in the past 2 weeks. Fortunately, the rise in levels of the virus, still going up in all 4 major US regions (most recent CDC data below) has not been linked with as much severe Covid (absolute increase) as was seen in prior waves, but compared to last week there was a relative increase of 25% of deaths and 12% increase in emergency room visits due to Covid. No matter how you look at it, this is not a benign wave, folks.
Moreover, besides people getting sick from Covid, typically now from a recurrent bout (often 3rd or more), there will be more people developing Long Covid, as Ziyad Al-Aly and colleagues recently published — less new cases of Long Covid but still a risk, especially in unvaccinated individuals.
Why is this happening?
The virus is relentlessly evolving, getting further and further away as an antigen (how our immune system ‘sees’ the virus) than the strains of virus in the early years of the pandemic … The virus will not stop here, despite our desire to will it way. It will continue to find new ways to infect and reinfect us, under selection pressure from our prior immunity (be it infections, vaccinations, or combinations). We may also see another “Omicron-like event” in the times ahead, with a profoundly altered virus spike, tens of new mutations, as seen with BA.1 and BA.2.86 (the latter eventually led to JN.1)
… [and there] is the blunting of our immune response, the big issue of waning immunity. The vaccine boosters only last 4-6 months for protection from severe Covid, do little after early weeks for any protection from infections or spread. The same goes for infections. Neutralizing antibody levels go down. Our interferon first line of defense gets blocked … The virus evolves and, at the same time, our immune response wanes. That’s not a good combination.
The other feature that promotes the virus is our complete let down of mitigation that we know (despite misinformation and disinformation) works. Few people are masking. Little has been done to improve air quality or ventilation. Indoor events are being held with big crowds, making believe that the virus has gone away. It hasn’t. It won’t. (Emphasis added.)
Dr. Jetelina puts it this way:
We are knee-deep in a substantial Covid-19 infection wave. Wastewater levels—a good indicator of community spread—remain high and continue to increase, especially in the South and the West, where levels are coming close to last winter’s. Thankfully, immunity keeps our hospitals from overflowing at this point, but severe disease trends continue to mirror infections. For example, in California, hospitalizations this summer are as high as last winter.
The great Chinese sage Confucius put it this way:
These are the four abuses: desire to succeed in order to make oneself famous; taking credit for the labors of others; refusal to correct one’s errors despite advice; refusal to change one’s ideas despite warnings.
You have been warned. We are knee-deep in COVID.