Post by Nadica (She/Her) on Aug 24, 2024 2:10:59 GMT
We Don’t Have to Wonder if the Great Barrington Declaration Could Have “Worked”. In the Real World It Failed & Redefining Basic Medical Terms Won’t Change That. - Published Aug 23, 2024
Herd immunity occurs when enough people have immunity so that most infected people cannot find new uninfected people to infect, leading to the end of the epidemic/pandemic.
The Great Barrington Declaration (GBD) was premised on the idea that the mass infection of unvaccinated “not vulnerable” people would end the pandemic. For it to have “worked”, 330 million Americans would have had to determine whether they were “vulnerable” or “not vulnerable” and then been willing to play their assigned role. That didn’t happen. In a previous article, I explained that for that reason, we don’t have to wonder if the GBD could have worked, in the real world it failed. However, this was not the only thing what actually went wrong with the GBD.
With this in mind, let’s turn to the concept of herd immunity.
What is herd immunity?
Herd immunity occurs when enough people have immunity so that most infected people cannot find new uninfected people to infect, leading to the end of the epidemic/pandemic.
That reasonable statement comes from the GBD itself. Even though SARS-CoV-2 was less than a year old when the GBD was written, its authors were certain that the simultaneous infection of 230 million unvaccinated, “not vulnerable” people would lead to herd immunity, protecting more “vulnerable” people. They said:
When herd immunity is reached, they (vulnerable people) can live normally again with minimal risks… If focused protection is used, it will likely only take 3 to 6 months.
In 2020, the GBD used the universally accepted definition of herd immunity. They discussed it with regards to new infections and the risk the virus posed to those without immunity to it. Herd immunity occurs when enough people have immunity so that most infected people cannot find new uninfected people to infect, leading to the end of the epidemic/pandemic. This wasn’t controversial at all. Everyone agreed with it.
While the GBD’s definition of herd immunity wasn’t in dispute, many people wisely doubted whether natural immunity alone could lead to herd immunity in under 6-months. Because babies aren’t born with natural immunity, humanity never achieved herd immunity to any virus through infections alone. Only vaccines can lead to herd immunity. Prior to the vaccine, for example, measles cases would rise and fall every couple of years as a new crop of newborns were infected. Herd immunity didn’t arise until the vaccine arrived and measles cases plummeted. There have been 214 cases this year, which is 214 too many, but thanks to herd immunity from the vaccine, measles cases are not rising exponentially. We will lose herd immunity if not enough children are vaccinated.
It is also not possible to reach herd immunity for a virus/vaccine that does not create durable immunity. Unfortunately, neither SARS-CoV-2 nor the vaccine does this, and reinfections were discussed by doctors in the mainstream media as early as September 2020, specifically in response to Dr. Scott Atlas’s pleas for herd immunity through mass infection. Watch the commentary of Dr. Sanjay Gupta in the second half of the video below as a reminder of what was known at the time.
We know now that COVID reinfections are trivially common, and the GBD’s plan of herd immunity was premised on the idea they would be rare events. They wrote that the immune response to COVID “appears to be quite long lasting” and that:
You can see this in the fact that that despite an estimated 750 million worldwide to date after 10 months living with the virus, we have seen only a handful of reinfections. If the virus is like other corona viruses in its immune response, recovery from infection will provide lasting protection against reinfection, either complete immunity or protection that makes a severe reinfection less likely.
The authors of the GBD spread this optimistic message widely in the first half of the pandemic. They authored articles such as Herd Immunity Is Still Key in the Fight Against Covid-19, It’s Mad That ‘Herd Immunity’ Was Ever a Taboo Phrase, We May Already Have Herd Immunity – an Interview With Professor Sunetra Gupta, and The Triumph of Natural Immunity which said:
New CDC study shows that around 75% of American children have already had covid. That means that they have strong natural immunity that protects them from covid infections as they get older.
Obviously, there couldn’t be evidence that immunity to a new virus would last years into the future. This is yet another example of doctors who just made things up. However, given their blind faith in “strong natural immunity”, the authors of the GBD didn’t just feel herd immunity was possible, they claimed it was inevitable, mocking any one who disagreed. They said:
Do you believe in herd immunity?
Yes. Herd immunity is a scientifically proven phenomenon. To ask an epidemiologist if they believe in herd immunity is like asking a physicist if they believe in gravity. Those who deny herd immunity may also wish to join the flat-earth society.
With COVID-19, can herd immunity be avoided?
No. Sooner or later, herd immunity will be reached either through natural infection or through a combination of vaccinations and natural infection.
The videos below show how all three authors of the GBD discussed herd immunity in 2020.
One of the authors of the GBD provided an optimistic follow-up in May 2021, saying:
Herd immunity means the diseases isn’t spreading at high rates. It doesn’t mean the disease is gone. In that sense, we’re kind of already there but the disease is mostly stop spreading in the US. Now it may come back, because this is very clearly a seasonal disease.
The Delta variant would arrive in full force 2 months later, ruining his fantasy of herd immunity for this “seasonal disease”, but his statement herd immunity means the diseases isn’t spreading at high rates was correct and uncontroversial.
What herd immunity looks like is you’ve had Covid before and recovered, or maybe you’ve had the vaccine, or whatever, but now if you get Covid it’s much less likely to produce severe disease and death, because you have that immunity.
A lot has happened since then. Yet amazingly, the authors of the GBD claim time has vindicated their pandemic predictions. In this video from December 2022, one of its authors says the GBD has been “proven right.” For that to be true, we must have herd immunity to COVID.
However, the authors of the GBD no longer discuss herd immunity in terms of “rates of infections” as they did in 2020. Instead, they created their own definition. One day, they and like-minded doctors simply decided that “herd immunity was likely always focused more on severity of symptoms than infection“, and since COVID is no longer overflowing morgues, they claim we now have herd immunity. As one of the authors of the GBD put it:
What herd immunity looks like is you’ve had COVID before and recovered, or maybe you’ve had the vaccine, or whatever, but now if you get COVID it’s much less likely to produce severe disease and death, because you have that immunity.
To maintain the illusion that they were right, the authors of the GBD completely rejected their original, universally-agreed on definition of herd immunity and invented a new one. It’s a lot like the parable of the rifleman who fires randomly against a wall and then later draws targets around the holes.
It’s true that COVID is killing many fewer people than before, thankfully. According to one recent article titled COVID Drops to 10th Leading Cause of Death in US:
Provisional data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) on the top causes of deaths in the United States in 2023 shows COVID-19 dropped to the tenth leading cause of death. In 2022, it was the fourth leading cause of death, meaning deaths from COVID dropped by 68.9% in one year.
However, unless SARS-CoV-2 mutated into significantly more virulent forms, it was always the case that that fewer people would die from it as the pandemic progressed. The actual term for this is mortality displacement, not herd immunity, and it reflects how the underlying population has changed since 2020. Not only is the virus not encountering an immunologically naive population, people can only die once. Tragically, 1.2 million Americans, who were by definition “vulnerable”, are no longer available for the virus to kill. As Olive Siffleur put it:
If a rampaging bear keeps attacking the campgrounds, all the people who weren’t able to outrun the bear the first time he attacked will already be dead the next time the bear rampages through the campsite. The lower death count doesn’t mean the bear became tamer.
Indeed, much like a rampaging bear who picked off the easy victims, COVID’s lower death count doesn’t mean SARS-CoV-2 has weakened over time. Though some doctors insist that a virus that flattens Olympians is now just a “cold“, no one can state with confidence that the consequences of repeat COVID infections will be mild for everyone. The virus is still new, after all and even old foes like measles still have surprises. Even with vaccines, COVID is still killing many more people than the flu, over 1,000 Americans last week, and reinfections can be severe for some people. One recent study found:
That severe infections from the virus that causes COVID-19 tend to foreshadow similar severity of infection the next time a person contracts the disease… About 27% of those with severe cases, defined as receiving hospital care for a coronavirus infection, also received hospital care for a reinfection.
Most importantly, the virus is infecting enough people to generate headlines like this- Summer COVID Surge Hits at Least 84 Countries and Continues to Climb.
Those who claim this is herd immunity may also wish to join the flat-earth society. Though yet again, we do not have to wonder if the GBD could have worked. In the real world it failed, and instead of absurdly trying to redefine basic medical terms, its authors could have simply uttered the words “I was wrong“.
Herd immunity occurs when enough people have immunity so that most infected people cannot find new uninfected people to infect, leading to the end of the epidemic/pandemic.
The Great Barrington Declaration (GBD) was premised on the idea that the mass infection of unvaccinated “not vulnerable” people would end the pandemic. For it to have “worked”, 330 million Americans would have had to determine whether they were “vulnerable” or “not vulnerable” and then been willing to play their assigned role. That didn’t happen. In a previous article, I explained that for that reason, we don’t have to wonder if the GBD could have worked, in the real world it failed. However, this was not the only thing what actually went wrong with the GBD.
With this in mind, let’s turn to the concept of herd immunity.
What is herd immunity?
Herd immunity occurs when enough people have immunity so that most infected people cannot find new uninfected people to infect, leading to the end of the epidemic/pandemic.
That reasonable statement comes from the GBD itself. Even though SARS-CoV-2 was less than a year old when the GBD was written, its authors were certain that the simultaneous infection of 230 million unvaccinated, “not vulnerable” people would lead to herd immunity, protecting more “vulnerable” people. They said:
When herd immunity is reached, they (vulnerable people) can live normally again with minimal risks… If focused protection is used, it will likely only take 3 to 6 months.
In 2020, the GBD used the universally accepted definition of herd immunity. They discussed it with regards to new infections and the risk the virus posed to those without immunity to it. Herd immunity occurs when enough people have immunity so that most infected people cannot find new uninfected people to infect, leading to the end of the epidemic/pandemic. This wasn’t controversial at all. Everyone agreed with it.
While the GBD’s definition of herd immunity wasn’t in dispute, many people wisely doubted whether natural immunity alone could lead to herd immunity in under 6-months. Because babies aren’t born with natural immunity, humanity never achieved herd immunity to any virus through infections alone. Only vaccines can lead to herd immunity. Prior to the vaccine, for example, measles cases would rise and fall every couple of years as a new crop of newborns were infected. Herd immunity didn’t arise until the vaccine arrived and measles cases plummeted. There have been 214 cases this year, which is 214 too many, but thanks to herd immunity from the vaccine, measles cases are not rising exponentially. We will lose herd immunity if not enough children are vaccinated.
It is also not possible to reach herd immunity for a virus/vaccine that does not create durable immunity. Unfortunately, neither SARS-CoV-2 nor the vaccine does this, and reinfections were discussed by doctors in the mainstream media as early as September 2020, specifically in response to Dr. Scott Atlas’s pleas for herd immunity through mass infection. Watch the commentary of Dr. Sanjay Gupta in the second half of the video below as a reminder of what was known at the time.
We know now that COVID reinfections are trivially common, and the GBD’s plan of herd immunity was premised on the idea they would be rare events. They wrote that the immune response to COVID “appears to be quite long lasting” and that:
You can see this in the fact that that despite an estimated 750 million worldwide to date after 10 months living with the virus, we have seen only a handful of reinfections. If the virus is like other corona viruses in its immune response, recovery from infection will provide lasting protection against reinfection, either complete immunity or protection that makes a severe reinfection less likely.
The authors of the GBD spread this optimistic message widely in the first half of the pandemic. They authored articles such as Herd Immunity Is Still Key in the Fight Against Covid-19, It’s Mad That ‘Herd Immunity’ Was Ever a Taboo Phrase, We May Already Have Herd Immunity – an Interview With Professor Sunetra Gupta, and The Triumph of Natural Immunity which said:
New CDC study shows that around 75% of American children have already had covid. That means that they have strong natural immunity that protects them from covid infections as they get older.
Obviously, there couldn’t be evidence that immunity to a new virus would last years into the future. This is yet another example of doctors who just made things up. However, given their blind faith in “strong natural immunity”, the authors of the GBD didn’t just feel herd immunity was possible, they claimed it was inevitable, mocking any one who disagreed. They said:
Do you believe in herd immunity?
Yes. Herd immunity is a scientifically proven phenomenon. To ask an epidemiologist if they believe in herd immunity is like asking a physicist if they believe in gravity. Those who deny herd immunity may also wish to join the flat-earth society.
With COVID-19, can herd immunity be avoided?
No. Sooner or later, herd immunity will be reached either through natural infection or through a combination of vaccinations and natural infection.
The videos below show how all three authors of the GBD discussed herd immunity in 2020.
One of the authors of the GBD provided an optimistic follow-up in May 2021, saying:
Herd immunity means the diseases isn’t spreading at high rates. It doesn’t mean the disease is gone. In that sense, we’re kind of already there but the disease is mostly stop spreading in the US. Now it may come back, because this is very clearly a seasonal disease.
The Delta variant would arrive in full force 2 months later, ruining his fantasy of herd immunity for this “seasonal disease”, but his statement herd immunity means the diseases isn’t spreading at high rates was correct and uncontroversial.
What herd immunity looks like is you’ve had Covid before and recovered, or maybe you’ve had the vaccine, or whatever, but now if you get Covid it’s much less likely to produce severe disease and death, because you have that immunity.
A lot has happened since then. Yet amazingly, the authors of the GBD claim time has vindicated their pandemic predictions. In this video from December 2022, one of its authors says the GBD has been “proven right.” For that to be true, we must have herd immunity to COVID.
However, the authors of the GBD no longer discuss herd immunity in terms of “rates of infections” as they did in 2020. Instead, they created their own definition. One day, they and like-minded doctors simply decided that “herd immunity was likely always focused more on severity of symptoms than infection“, and since COVID is no longer overflowing morgues, they claim we now have herd immunity. As one of the authors of the GBD put it:
What herd immunity looks like is you’ve had COVID before and recovered, or maybe you’ve had the vaccine, or whatever, but now if you get COVID it’s much less likely to produce severe disease and death, because you have that immunity.
To maintain the illusion that they were right, the authors of the GBD completely rejected their original, universally-agreed on definition of herd immunity and invented a new one. It’s a lot like the parable of the rifleman who fires randomly against a wall and then later draws targets around the holes.
It’s true that COVID is killing many fewer people than before, thankfully. According to one recent article titled COVID Drops to 10th Leading Cause of Death in US:
Provisional data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) on the top causes of deaths in the United States in 2023 shows COVID-19 dropped to the tenth leading cause of death. In 2022, it was the fourth leading cause of death, meaning deaths from COVID dropped by 68.9% in one year.
However, unless SARS-CoV-2 mutated into significantly more virulent forms, it was always the case that that fewer people would die from it as the pandemic progressed. The actual term for this is mortality displacement, not herd immunity, and it reflects how the underlying population has changed since 2020. Not only is the virus not encountering an immunologically naive population, people can only die once. Tragically, 1.2 million Americans, who were by definition “vulnerable”, are no longer available for the virus to kill. As Olive Siffleur put it:
If a rampaging bear keeps attacking the campgrounds, all the people who weren’t able to outrun the bear the first time he attacked will already be dead the next time the bear rampages through the campsite. The lower death count doesn’t mean the bear became tamer.
Indeed, much like a rampaging bear who picked off the easy victims, COVID’s lower death count doesn’t mean SARS-CoV-2 has weakened over time. Though some doctors insist that a virus that flattens Olympians is now just a “cold“, no one can state with confidence that the consequences of repeat COVID infections will be mild for everyone. The virus is still new, after all and even old foes like measles still have surprises. Even with vaccines, COVID is still killing many more people than the flu, over 1,000 Americans last week, and reinfections can be severe for some people. One recent study found:
That severe infections from the virus that causes COVID-19 tend to foreshadow similar severity of infection the next time a person contracts the disease… About 27% of those with severe cases, defined as receiving hospital care for a coronavirus infection, also received hospital care for a reinfection.
Most importantly, the virus is infecting enough people to generate headlines like this- Summer COVID Surge Hits at Least 84 Countries and Continues to Climb.
Those who claim this is herd immunity may also wish to join the flat-earth society. Though yet again, we do not have to wonder if the GBD could have worked. In the real world it failed, and instead of absurdly trying to redefine basic medical terms, its authors could have simply uttered the words “I was wrong“.