Post by Nadica (She/Her) on Aug 5, 2024 20:34:12 GMT
Covid cases still rising and could go higher later in the summer, scientists warn - Published Aug 5, 2024
New figures indicate Covid cases are at the second highest level in a year
(Data analyst Bob Hawkins) This graph shows the ‘positivity rate’ of those with symptoms in hospitals testing positive for Covid. This is not the same as the prevalence in the general population, which will be much lower, scientists stress.
Covid cases are close to their highest level for more than a year after numbers started rising again, new figures indicate.
Scientists are warning, however, that they are likely to go even higher in late summer and early Autumn as people return from the Olympics and the school year resumes.
The latest government figures suggest that Covid infections rose by approximately 2 per cent in the week to Sunday 28 July as the proportion of people in England with symptoms testing for the virus in hospitals rose from 12.2 per cent to 12.4 per cent, according to the UK Heath Security Agency (UKHSA).
This is the second highest level in more than a year, just behind the 13.2 per cent figure recorded a fortnight earlier, on 14 July.
The proportion testing positive dipped slightly following that high before rising again the following week.
Although the data is for England, Covid levels have been broadly similar across the UK throughout while separate wastewater monitoring in Scotland also indicates “an enormous July spike” scientists say.
The current elevated levels of Covid infections are driven by waning immunity built up from vaccines and previous infections, lower uptake of the spring booster among eligible groups and the continuing spread of so-called FLiRT variants.
Scientists cautioned that these figures cannot be taken as a precise estimate for the level of Covid in the general population.
However, they say these ‘positivity rate’ figures are the best indicator of trends we have for the virus more generally across the UK after the government stopped the Winter Infection survey in mid March.
And they point out that estimates of Covid prevalence based on tests taken by the general population are increasingly unreliable as testing rates have halved since January and were far below peak levels even then.
“This third Covid wave of 2024 tells us once again that this virus remains entirely unpredictable and shows no sign of slowing down,” Professor Steve Griffin, of Leeds University, told i.
“The scale of infection, though difficult to tell, seems at least as bad as the winter peak, and could be even higher according to waste water monitoring in Scotland.”
Covid hospital admissions, meanwhile – another key indicator of the virus – decreased slightly to 4.24 per 100,000 in the week to 28 July, compared with 4.69 per 100,000 in the previous week.
As an indicator of prevalence, hospitalisations typically give a picture of infection levels a few weeks earlier than admittance as that is the length of time it typically takes for the infection to become serious.
Experts said the small increase in cases last week suggests infections are stabilising but they warned that levels remain high and that they could well start to rise more sharply in the coming weeks.
Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at Warwick University, told i: “While the number of Covid infections appears to be stabilising, there is still a lot more infections around than would be expected for this time of year.
“A combination of more infectious variants, decaying immunity and more mixing in crowded spaces are all working together to increase the spread of the virus.”
He said that GB swimmer Adam Peaty missing out on some of the Olympics (he missed the mixed 4x100m medley relay heats) after testing positive for Covid “is a reminder that the virus is still circulating and that both athletes and spectators are at risk”.
“Crowding at the Olympics and the mixing of people from all around the world is not surprisingly contributing to the spread of Covid. The worry is that the return of athletes and audiences to their home countries will further exacerbate the spread of the virus” Professor Young said.
Simon Williams, of Swansea University, adds: “Although people spend more time outdoors in summer which is less risky as far as spreading the disease, there are also lots of opportunities for the virus to travel internationally, mix and spread, as people go on holidays and large events, like concerts or the Olympics.”
Scientists say Covid cases are rising, in part, because spring booster uptake was lower this year – particularly among those with weakened immune systems, with just 36 per cent taking up the offer, compared to 43 per cent last time.
They urge those who can afford it, to get a jab privately from Boots (£98.95 for the Pfizer vaccine) or an independent pharmacy operating under the Pharmadoctor scheme, which charges around £75 to £85 for the Pfizer jab and £45 to £55 for the Novavax vaccine.
Professor Christina Pagel said that, based on analysis of waste water data that is available in Scotland but not England: “I think it is unarguable that Scotland is seeing a very large Covid wave and, very likely, England too. The question is what happens when people return to school and work in September in England and life moves back indoors?”
She adds: “The closest we can get to prevalence in England (and it’s not that close) is wastewater monitoring in Scotland. Wastewater monitoring cannot be directly related to overall prevalence because how much virus is picked up in wastewater depends a lot on individual people’s responses to infection and the variants involved.
“That’s because some people just shed a lot more virus than others and some variants might make it more likely for virus to be excreted out. All that said, wastewater monitoring is the best we have in the absence of a random infection survey, as it does not depend on testing or being sick enough to need hospital”.
Bob Hawkins, a data analyst who works with the Independent Sage group of Covid scientists, said: “This week’s figures indicate that Covid levels remain high. It now seems likely that this summer wave is continuing, indicating that Covid is not a seasonal disease and we are likely to experience further waves as new variants emerge and immunity levels wane.
“Therefore, it is prudent to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing Covid symptoms and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible,” he said.
Dr Mary Ramsay, Director of Public Health Programmes at UKHSA, said: “It is encouraging to see that COVID-19 case rates appear to have stabilised after rising in the previous few weeks. UKHSA will continue to monitor the data closely to see if this trend continues.
“While out and about and socialising this summer, it’s important to remember that taking time to recover when we become unwell helps to prevent the spread of these viruses to the people around us,” she added.
New figures indicate Covid cases are at the second highest level in a year
(Data analyst Bob Hawkins) This graph shows the ‘positivity rate’ of those with symptoms in hospitals testing positive for Covid. This is not the same as the prevalence in the general population, which will be much lower, scientists stress.
Covid cases are close to their highest level for more than a year after numbers started rising again, new figures indicate.
Scientists are warning, however, that they are likely to go even higher in late summer and early Autumn as people return from the Olympics and the school year resumes.
The latest government figures suggest that Covid infections rose by approximately 2 per cent in the week to Sunday 28 July as the proportion of people in England with symptoms testing for the virus in hospitals rose from 12.2 per cent to 12.4 per cent, according to the UK Heath Security Agency (UKHSA).
This is the second highest level in more than a year, just behind the 13.2 per cent figure recorded a fortnight earlier, on 14 July.
The proportion testing positive dipped slightly following that high before rising again the following week.
Although the data is for England, Covid levels have been broadly similar across the UK throughout while separate wastewater monitoring in Scotland also indicates “an enormous July spike” scientists say.
The current elevated levels of Covid infections are driven by waning immunity built up from vaccines and previous infections, lower uptake of the spring booster among eligible groups and the continuing spread of so-called FLiRT variants.
Scientists cautioned that these figures cannot be taken as a precise estimate for the level of Covid in the general population.
However, they say these ‘positivity rate’ figures are the best indicator of trends we have for the virus more generally across the UK after the government stopped the Winter Infection survey in mid March.
And they point out that estimates of Covid prevalence based on tests taken by the general population are increasingly unreliable as testing rates have halved since January and were far below peak levels even then.
“This third Covid wave of 2024 tells us once again that this virus remains entirely unpredictable and shows no sign of slowing down,” Professor Steve Griffin, of Leeds University, told i.
“The scale of infection, though difficult to tell, seems at least as bad as the winter peak, and could be even higher according to waste water monitoring in Scotland.”
Covid hospital admissions, meanwhile – another key indicator of the virus – decreased slightly to 4.24 per 100,000 in the week to 28 July, compared with 4.69 per 100,000 in the previous week.
As an indicator of prevalence, hospitalisations typically give a picture of infection levels a few weeks earlier than admittance as that is the length of time it typically takes for the infection to become serious.
Experts said the small increase in cases last week suggests infections are stabilising but they warned that levels remain high and that they could well start to rise more sharply in the coming weeks.
Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at Warwick University, told i: “While the number of Covid infections appears to be stabilising, there is still a lot more infections around than would be expected for this time of year.
“A combination of more infectious variants, decaying immunity and more mixing in crowded spaces are all working together to increase the spread of the virus.”
He said that GB swimmer Adam Peaty missing out on some of the Olympics (he missed the mixed 4x100m medley relay heats) after testing positive for Covid “is a reminder that the virus is still circulating and that both athletes and spectators are at risk”.
“Crowding at the Olympics and the mixing of people from all around the world is not surprisingly contributing to the spread of Covid. The worry is that the return of athletes and audiences to their home countries will further exacerbate the spread of the virus” Professor Young said.
Simon Williams, of Swansea University, adds: “Although people spend more time outdoors in summer which is less risky as far as spreading the disease, there are also lots of opportunities for the virus to travel internationally, mix and spread, as people go on holidays and large events, like concerts or the Olympics.”
Scientists say Covid cases are rising, in part, because spring booster uptake was lower this year – particularly among those with weakened immune systems, with just 36 per cent taking up the offer, compared to 43 per cent last time.
They urge those who can afford it, to get a jab privately from Boots (£98.95 for the Pfizer vaccine) or an independent pharmacy operating under the Pharmadoctor scheme, which charges around £75 to £85 for the Pfizer jab and £45 to £55 for the Novavax vaccine.
Professor Christina Pagel said that, based on analysis of waste water data that is available in Scotland but not England: “I think it is unarguable that Scotland is seeing a very large Covid wave and, very likely, England too. The question is what happens when people return to school and work in September in England and life moves back indoors?”
She adds: “The closest we can get to prevalence in England (and it’s not that close) is wastewater monitoring in Scotland. Wastewater monitoring cannot be directly related to overall prevalence because how much virus is picked up in wastewater depends a lot on individual people’s responses to infection and the variants involved.
“That’s because some people just shed a lot more virus than others and some variants might make it more likely for virus to be excreted out. All that said, wastewater monitoring is the best we have in the absence of a random infection survey, as it does not depend on testing or being sick enough to need hospital”.
Bob Hawkins, a data analyst who works with the Independent Sage group of Covid scientists, said: “This week’s figures indicate that Covid levels remain high. It now seems likely that this summer wave is continuing, indicating that Covid is not a seasonal disease and we are likely to experience further waves as new variants emerge and immunity levels wane.
“Therefore, it is prudent to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing Covid symptoms and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible,” he said.
Dr Mary Ramsay, Director of Public Health Programmes at UKHSA, said: “It is encouraging to see that COVID-19 case rates appear to have stabilised after rising in the previous few weeks. UKHSA will continue to monitor the data closely to see if this trend continues.
“While out and about and socialising this summer, it’s important to remember that taking time to recover when we become unwell helps to prevent the spread of these viruses to the people around us,” she added.