Post by Beannachd she/her on Jun 16, 2024 16:43:40 GMT
Apparently, Homeland Security released a COVID report in January 2024. The link to the report is at the beginning. This thread from ZorroCOVID on Mastodon hits most of the highlights. I’ve copied and pasted for them as don’t wanna click the link, but the discussion is there and worth reading as well. The five posts at the end are from Sam, and break down some of the places the report is lacking - not incorrect, but errors of omission.
And one more piece I’d have missed completely - Charlie Stross pointed out this math: “Note that a simple (and obviously simplistic) extrapolation of deaths per capita from the US confirmed death toll to the global population would give 28 million dead, so far. More than 36 million people have died of HIV/AIDS since the start of the epidemic in the 1970s:
COVID19 appears to be killing us more than ten times as fast.”
Thread:
forall.social/@themaskerscomic/112621639263781509
ZorroCOVID
6/16/2024
Wow. I didn't realize the Dept of Homeland Security released this #COVID report to public in Jan 2024 and... I'm impressed . It's a good breakdown of what they know and aren't acting on:
www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2024-04/24_0125_mql_sars_cov-2.pdf
Some key admittance:
INFECTIVITY
Decreased threshold for infectivity has been modeled in newer variants, suggesting SARS-CoV-2 infection can occur from 100 virus copies of Omicron variant.
TRANSMISSIBILITY
As of 1/22/2024, COVID-19 has caused at least 774,075,242 infections and 7,012,986 deaths
globally. In the United States 1,169,666 deaths have been confirmed. Cases and fatalities are likely underestimated.
COVID-19 is more severe than seasonal influenza, evidenced by higher intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality rates.
In the U.S., 29-34% of hospitalized patients required ICU admission, and 12.6-13.6% died from COVID-19.
• COVID-19 also causes pneumonia, cardiac injury, kidney damage, pancreatitis, arrhythmia, sepsis, stroke,
respiratory complications, and shock.
SARS-CoV-2 weakens blood vessels in the lungs and is associated with
hyperactive platelets, leading to ARDS.
Clotting affects multiple organs and is present in 15-27% of cases.
Long COVID is a multisystemic illness, where symptoms linger for weeks, months, or years after initial diagnosis of COVID-19. The incidence is estimated at 10-30% for non-hospitalized cases, 50-70% for hospitalized cases, and 10-12% for vaccinated cases.
Over 203 symptoms were reported by long COVID patients in a large (n=3,762) survey. SARS-CoV-2 infection appears to exacerbate underlying conditions, with symptoms ranging from vascular and cardiac issues, central nervous system and demyelination issues, and sex-specific reproductive complications.
Long-term symptoms such as fatigue, smell/taste disorders, neurological impairment,
and dyspnea, difficulties with concentration, and finding correct words during speech may affect the ability to return to work.
• The incidence rate of pediatric long COVID is still uncertain. Due to small study sizes and inconsistent collection and analysis methods, the reported incidence rate can vary from approximately 25% to <5%. Additionally, the correlation between pediatric long COVID and medical history, including mental health, is not well established.
• A study determined that age, sex, and vaccination status could not be used to predict the development of long COVID.
• Risk factors potentially include obesity, age, female sex, type 2 diabetes, EBV reactivation, presence of specific autoantibodies, connective tissue disorders, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, chronic urticaria and allergic rhinitis, and other autoimmune conditions; although no identified preexisting conditions have been identified in 1/3 of
long COVID cases.
• Face masks inhibit transmission by both reducing the number of exhaled particles from infectious individuals, as well as reducing the number of inhaled particles when worn by uninfected individuals. A large analysis across 56 countries found that mask wearing reduced the mean transmission rate by 19%. In a study of K-12 school districts across nine states, those with universal masking policies reported 3.6 times fewer secondary infections than those with optional masking policies.
• Large retrospective studies showed that reductions in COVID-19 transmission were noted approximately 1 week after policies that reduced contact in large groups, such as workplace and school closures, cancelling large public events and restricting private gatherings, were put in place. Re-opening restaurants in the U.S. was associated with significantly higher mortality 61-100 days after relaxation of restrictions in a largely unvaccinated population.
NPIs should be implemented in conjunction with vaccination
• NPIs and vaccines work synergistically to reduce disease burden, and both are needed when vaccine coverage rates are low. Early in the pandemic, NPIs were responsible for a 35% reduction in transmission, while vaccinations were
responsible for a 38% reduction in transmission; however, when NPIs were combined with vaccination it resulted in a 53%
reduction in transmission.
• Modeling shows that NPIs can reduce the likelihood of vaccine-resistant variant emergence, as the simulated emergence of vaccine-resistant strains was highest when vaccination levels were high (60%), but transmission was uncontrolled.
• Researchers have proposed an Omicron variant model to provide insights to coordinate NPIs and vaccination, where NPIs become more important to control transmission as the vaccine efficacy is reduced due to the emergence of new variants.
• Reducing capacity at crowded indoor locations, increasing indoor air flow rates, adding portable air cleaners, and
wearing masks may reduce indoor transmission. Aerosol infection risk is not uniform in indoor environments, and can be greatly impacted by patterns of ventilation.
Sam
@themaskerscomic #COVID
/1
Homeland Securities summary is generally excellent.
It does fall short in several areas. There it is only good.
1) They fail to fully understand the durability of immunity and its reasons. (log-linear decline in antibody titers and memory cell decline)
2) They hand wave the difference in mask efficiency, which falsely raises surgical mask efficacy, and fail to understand the cause of fit-failures in N95's
3) Animal transmission needs improvement.
@themaskerscomic #COVID
/2
3) cont. They particularly miss the Omicron origin from rodents (likely mouse like in Africa) which itself came from a B.1.1. anthroponoses to them.
4) That missing element leads to others - including the danger of other such hybridizations and zoonoses.
5) They have not recognized the need to update which if any treatments are still effective.
6) They omit the log-linear relationship of death risk with age, and the change in death rate with endemic conditions.
@themaskerscomic #COVID
/3
7) They also do not really go into the hybridization potential of the virus, which is as crucial as its mutation rate.
8) They don't detail the more than 15 cell surface antigens involved in transmission, and what that means.
9) They don't go through sequelae other than long-COVID - particularly clotting disorders, immune system damage,
accelerated aging, and others. These are major omissions.
And others.
@themaskerscomic #COVID
/4
All of that said, the report is still an excellent summary, particularly related to transmission rates and factors, and the infectiousness of the virus in its many variants.
The timeframes and generation times are particularly well represented.
The flaws relate mostly to omission, not error. The lack of full understanding of immune decline being the one exception I see at first glance. Like others they are caught in old wrong modes of thinking about durability.
@themaskerscomic #COVID
/5
Where it most needs an addenda are related to those factors that can impact policy and recommendations involved in fighting the pandemic and protecting people from exposure, as well as assessment of catastrophe potentials, means to detect those, and how to rapidly respond.
Also missing is an analysis of the impacts on the population and society over time. It is there that the other sequelae dominate and can (will I believe) destroy society as a whole.
And one more piece I’d have missed completely - Charlie Stross pointed out this math: “Note that a simple (and obviously simplistic) extrapolation of deaths per capita from the US confirmed death toll to the global population would give 28 million dead, so far. More than 36 million people have died of HIV/AIDS since the start of the epidemic in the 1970s:
COVID19 appears to be killing us more than ten times as fast.”
Thread:
forall.social/@themaskerscomic/112621639263781509
ZorroCOVID
6/16/2024
Wow. I didn't realize the Dept of Homeland Security released this #COVID report to public in Jan 2024 and... I'm impressed . It's a good breakdown of what they know and aren't acting on:
www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2024-04/24_0125_mql_sars_cov-2.pdf
Some key admittance:
INFECTIVITY
Decreased threshold for infectivity has been modeled in newer variants, suggesting SARS-CoV-2 infection can occur from 100 virus copies of Omicron variant.
TRANSMISSIBILITY
As of 1/22/2024, COVID-19 has caused at least 774,075,242 infections and 7,012,986 deaths
globally. In the United States 1,169,666 deaths have been confirmed. Cases and fatalities are likely underestimated.
COVID-19 is more severe than seasonal influenza, evidenced by higher intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality rates.
In the U.S., 29-34% of hospitalized patients required ICU admission, and 12.6-13.6% died from COVID-19.
• COVID-19 also causes pneumonia, cardiac injury, kidney damage, pancreatitis, arrhythmia, sepsis, stroke,
respiratory complications, and shock.
SARS-CoV-2 weakens blood vessels in the lungs and is associated with
hyperactive platelets, leading to ARDS.
Clotting affects multiple organs and is present in 15-27% of cases.
Long COVID is a multisystemic illness, where symptoms linger for weeks, months, or years after initial diagnosis of COVID-19. The incidence is estimated at 10-30% for non-hospitalized cases, 50-70% for hospitalized cases, and 10-12% for vaccinated cases.
Over 203 symptoms were reported by long COVID patients in a large (n=3,762) survey. SARS-CoV-2 infection appears to exacerbate underlying conditions, with symptoms ranging from vascular and cardiac issues, central nervous system and demyelination issues, and sex-specific reproductive complications.
Long-term symptoms such as fatigue, smell/taste disorders, neurological impairment,
and dyspnea, difficulties with concentration, and finding correct words during speech may affect the ability to return to work.
• The incidence rate of pediatric long COVID is still uncertain. Due to small study sizes and inconsistent collection and analysis methods, the reported incidence rate can vary from approximately 25% to <5%. Additionally, the correlation between pediatric long COVID and medical history, including mental health, is not well established.
• A study determined that age, sex, and vaccination status could not be used to predict the development of long COVID.
• Risk factors potentially include obesity, age, female sex, type 2 diabetes, EBV reactivation, presence of specific autoantibodies, connective tissue disorders, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, chronic urticaria and allergic rhinitis, and other autoimmune conditions; although no identified preexisting conditions have been identified in 1/3 of
long COVID cases.
• Face masks inhibit transmission by both reducing the number of exhaled particles from infectious individuals, as well as reducing the number of inhaled particles when worn by uninfected individuals. A large analysis across 56 countries found that mask wearing reduced the mean transmission rate by 19%. In a study of K-12 school districts across nine states, those with universal masking policies reported 3.6 times fewer secondary infections than those with optional masking policies.
• Large retrospective studies showed that reductions in COVID-19 transmission were noted approximately 1 week after policies that reduced contact in large groups, such as workplace and school closures, cancelling large public events and restricting private gatherings, were put in place. Re-opening restaurants in the U.S. was associated with significantly higher mortality 61-100 days after relaxation of restrictions in a largely unvaccinated population.
NPIs should be implemented in conjunction with vaccination
• NPIs and vaccines work synergistically to reduce disease burden, and both are needed when vaccine coverage rates are low. Early in the pandemic, NPIs were responsible for a 35% reduction in transmission, while vaccinations were
responsible for a 38% reduction in transmission; however, when NPIs were combined with vaccination it resulted in a 53%
reduction in transmission.
• Modeling shows that NPIs can reduce the likelihood of vaccine-resistant variant emergence, as the simulated emergence of vaccine-resistant strains was highest when vaccination levels were high (60%), but transmission was uncontrolled.
• Researchers have proposed an Omicron variant model to provide insights to coordinate NPIs and vaccination, where NPIs become more important to control transmission as the vaccine efficacy is reduced due to the emergence of new variants.
• Reducing capacity at crowded indoor locations, increasing indoor air flow rates, adding portable air cleaners, and
wearing masks may reduce indoor transmission. Aerosol infection risk is not uniform in indoor environments, and can be greatly impacted by patterns of ventilation.
Sam
@themaskerscomic #COVID
/1
Homeland Securities summary is generally excellent.
It does fall short in several areas. There it is only good.
1) They fail to fully understand the durability of immunity and its reasons. (log-linear decline in antibody titers and memory cell decline)
2) They hand wave the difference in mask efficiency, which falsely raises surgical mask efficacy, and fail to understand the cause of fit-failures in N95's
3) Animal transmission needs improvement.
@themaskerscomic #COVID
/2
3) cont. They particularly miss the Omicron origin from rodents (likely mouse like in Africa) which itself came from a B.1.1. anthroponoses to them.
4) That missing element leads to others - including the danger of other such hybridizations and zoonoses.
5) They have not recognized the need to update which if any treatments are still effective.
6) They omit the log-linear relationship of death risk with age, and the change in death rate with endemic conditions.
@themaskerscomic #COVID
/3
7) They also do not really go into the hybridization potential of the virus, which is as crucial as its mutation rate.
8) They don't detail the more than 15 cell surface antigens involved in transmission, and what that means.
9) They don't go through sequelae other than long-COVID - particularly clotting disorders, immune system damage,
accelerated aging, and others. These are major omissions.
And others.
@themaskerscomic #COVID
/4
All of that said, the report is still an excellent summary, particularly related to transmission rates and factors, and the infectiousness of the virus in its many variants.
The timeframes and generation times are particularly well represented.
The flaws relate mostly to omission, not error. The lack of full understanding of immune decline being the one exception I see at first glance. Like others they are caught in old wrong modes of thinking about durability.
@themaskerscomic #COVID
/5
Where it most needs an addenda are related to those factors that can impact policy and recommendations involved in fighting the pandemic and protecting people from exposure, as well as assessment of catastrophe potentials, means to detect those, and how to rapidly respond.
Also missing is an analysis of the impacts on the population and society over time. It is there that the other sequelae dominate and can (will I believe) destroy society as a whole.
